UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 09:45 PDT

LensvSporting CP

Lens

44%

Draw

24%

Sporting CP

33%

Got%OnIt gives Lens a 44% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: Lens has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.7 goals for Lens and 1.4 for Sporting CP.
Lens won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a game.
Sporting CP won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 a game.

What argues against it

Lens has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Lens are 10th of 36 after 1 games; Sporting CP are 7th.
Lens have won 1 and lost 0; Sporting CP have won 1 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Lens

W3–2at Slavia Praha10 Sept
W2–1v Sevilla12 Dec
L0–6at Arsenal29 Nov
L0–1at PSV Eindhoven8 Nov
D1–1v PSV Eindhoven24 Oct
W2–1v Arsenal3 Oct

Sporting CP

W3–1v Galatasaray9 Sept
D0–0at Arsenal15 Apr
L0–1v Arsenal7 Apr
W3–0v Bodo/Glimt17 Mar
L0–3at Bodo/Glimt11 Mar
W3–2at Athletic Club28 Jan

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 172, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Lens)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Sporting CP)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T16:45:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 19:32 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationLens 3.9 d rest (short) · Sporting CP 4 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:04 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Lens

3.9 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Estac Troyes +4.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Fri 18 SeptL1A MonacoL 1–2counted as workload
Fri 9 OctL1H LyonW 2–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 17 OctL1A Estac Troyes+4.1 d
Wed 21 OctUCLA Club Brugge KV+8.1 d
Sat 24 OctL1H Paris FC+11.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Fri 9 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: A. Sima (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 78.9 CONFIRMED

Lens: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
R. Risser · regular	G	90	90	—
I. Ganiou · regular	D	90	90	—
Y. Titraoui	M	54	54	—
F. Sotoca	M	69	69	—
O. Édouard	F	69	69	—
F. Thauvin · regular	M	90	90	—
M. Udol · regular	M	90	90	—
M. Cuisance	M	83	83	—
R. Aguilar	M	90	90	—
K. Antonio · regular	D	90	90	—
J. Gradit	D	53	53	—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 187 minutes — A. Bulatović (0' Montenegro, 11 d before; 79' Montenegro, 7.9 d before); F. Ivanović (18' Croatia, 13.9 d before; 90' Croatia, 10 d before) CONFIRMED

Sporting CP

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H Lask Linz +8.1 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLH Lask Linz+8.1 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 13 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: Trincao (M) — reason unknown; J. Simoes (M) — reason unknown; M. Hjulmand (M) — reason unknown; O. Diomande (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Sporting CP: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Luis Guilherme	M	0	—
G. Inacio · regular	D	0	0' Portugal, 11.9 d before
I. Doumbia	M	100	10' Italy, 10.9 d before; 90' Italy, 7.9 d before
G. Catamo · regular	M	0	—
L. Suarez · regular	F	0	—
S. Altimira	M	0	—
R. Silva · regular	G	0	0' Portugal, 11.9 d before; 0' Portugal, 8.9 d before
M. Araujo · regular	D	0	—
G. Vagiannidis	D	0	—
E. Quaresma	D	0	—
R. Zalazar	M	0	—

International duty in 14 days: 3 players, 349 minutes — I. Doumbia (10' Italy, 10.9 d before; 90' Italy, 7.9 d before); I. Fresneda (0' Spain, 13.9 d before; 90' Spain, 9.9 d before; 0' Spain, 6.9 d before); F. Ioannidis (71' Greece, 11.9 d before; 88' Greece, 8.9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Lens

A. Sima · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
I. Jourdren · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
J. Chavez · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
J. Todibo · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture
M. Diarra · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
M. Nawrocki · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
T. Hazard · injury / absence: Inactive · Missing Fixture

Sporting CP

N. Santos · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
R. Zalazar · injury / absence: Injury · Questionable

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Lens	44%	38%	39%
Draw	24%	26%	25%
Sporting CP	33%	37%	36%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 32 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Lens a higher chance of winning than bookmakers (44% vs 38%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence7 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Lens

Lens: 7 finished matches (7 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 71%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 71%; over 1.5 goals in 86%, over 2.5 in 57%.

W3–2at Slavia Praha10 Sept · in model evidence
W2–1v Sevilla12 Dec · in model evidence
L0–6at Arsenal29 Nov · in model evidence
L0–1at PSV Eindhoven8 Nov · in model evidence
D1–1v PSV Eindhoven24 Oct · in model evidence
W2–1v Arsenal3 Oct · in model evidence

Sporting CP

Sporting CP: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.2 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 80%, over 2.5 in 70%.

W3–1v Galatasaray9 Sept · in model evidence
D0–0at Arsenal15 Apr · in model evidence
L0–1v Arsenal7 Apr · in model evidence
W3–0v Bodo/Glimt17 Mar · in model evidence
L0–3at Bodo/Glimt11 Mar · in model evidence
W3–2at Athletic Club28 Jan · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	5%
1 goal	14%
2 goals	22%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	17%
5 goals	10%
6 or more	9%
Over 1.5	—
Over 2.5	—
Over 3.5	—
Both teams score	—

Lens

Expected goals	1.65
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	25%

Sporting CP

Expected goals	1.40
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	19%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability9 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

9 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 23 min ago.

Lens

A. SimaOutMuscle Injury
I. JourdrenOutOff the roster
J. ChavezOutThigh Injury
J. TodiboOutInactive
M. DiarraOutOff the roster
M. NawrockiOutKnee Injury
T. HazardOutInactive

Sporting CP

N. SantosOutMuscle Injury
R. ZalazarDoubtfulInjury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season10th v 7th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Lens

10th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 2

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 2)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Sporting CP

7th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 3, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 3, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Lens to win (90 minutes)

44%

39%

YES on Lens to WinLens wins in 90 minutes

44%39¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 25,483 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sporting CP to win (90 minutes)

33%

36%

YES on Sporting CP to WinSporting CP wins in 90 minutes

33%36¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 1,344 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

24%

25%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

24%25¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 2,019 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawLens or Sporting CP wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

76%76¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 22,838 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Sporting CP to WinLens wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

67%65¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 25,926 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lens to WinSporting CP wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

56%62¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,154 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

96%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

—96¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 721 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

—5¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,282 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

83%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

—84¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 14,539 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

—18¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,971 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

62%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

—62¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,931 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

—39¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,703 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

40%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

—40¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,810 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

—61¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 400 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

22%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

—22¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,612 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

—79¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

10%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

—10¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

—91¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,810 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

—

65%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

—65¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 14,400 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

—36¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 463 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Winning margin

Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

19%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Lens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLens wins by 2 goals or more

—19¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lens to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSporting CP wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 1 goal · Lens not by 2+ goals

—82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,761 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Lens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLens wins by 3 goals or more

—8¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,499 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lens to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSporting CP wins or the match is drawn, or Lens wins by 2 goals or fewer · Lens not by 3+ goals

—93¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 543 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Sporting CP to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

17%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSporting CP wins by 2 goals or more

—17¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,204 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsLens wins or the match is drawn, or Sporting CP wins by 1 goal · Sporting CP not by 2+ goals

—84¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 15,377 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Sporting CP to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSporting CP wins by 3 goals or more

—7¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,950 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Sporting CP to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsLens wins or the match is drawn, or Sporting CP wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sporting CP not by 3+ goals

—94¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,423 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Team goals

Lens over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

80%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Lens Over 0.5 GoalsLens scores 1 goal or more

—82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 945 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lens Over 0.5 GoalsLens does not score · Lens under 0.5 goals

—22¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 102 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Lens over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

48%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Lens Over 1.5 GoalsLens scores 2 goals or more

—49¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lens Over 1.5 GoalsLens scores 1 goal or fewer · Lens under 1.5 goals

—54¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Lens over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

23%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Lens Over 2.5 GoalsLens scores 3 goals or more

—23¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,830 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Lens Over 2.5 GoalsLens scores 2 goals or fewer · Lens under 2.5 goals

—78¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

Sporting CP over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

79%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Sporting CP Over 0.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 1 goal or more

—80¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Sporting CP Over 0.5 GoalsSporting CP does not score · Sporting CP under 0.5 goals

—22¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Sporting CP over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

46%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Sporting CP Over 1.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 2 goals or more

—47¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Sporting CP Over 1.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 1 goal or fewer · Sporting CP under 1.5 goals

—55¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 38 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

Sporting CP over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

22%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Sporting CP Over 2.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 3 goals or more

—22¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote 32 min old

NO on Sporting CP Over 2.5 GoalsSporting CP scores 2 goals or fewer · Sporting CP under 2.5 goals

—79¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 32 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 43.6% · draw 23.9% · away 32.5%
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.40
Lens eligible matches: 7 (6 with xG)
Sporting CP eligible matches: 23 (22 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: thin evidence: home side has 7 eligible matches; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
thin evidence: home side has 7 eligible matches
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's home probability is 5% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Lens	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Sept	Slavia Praha	away	3–2	—	W
12 Dec	Sevilla	home	2–1	1.36–1.26	W
29 Nov	Arsenal	away	0–6	0.33–2.49	L
8 Nov	PSV Eindhoven	away	0–1	1.15–0.83	L
24 Oct	PSV Eindhoven	home	1–1	0.96–0.56	D
3 Oct	Arsenal	home	2–1	0.64–1.31	W

Sporting CP	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Sept	Galatasaray	home	3–1	1.75–1.23	W
15 Apr	Arsenal	away	0–0	0.29–0.64	D
7 Apr	Arsenal	home	0–1	0.71–1.33	L
17 Mar	Bodo/Glimt	home	3–0	—	W
11 Mar	Bodo/Glimt	away	0–3	0.61–2.78	L
28 Jan	Athletic Club	away	3–2	1.76–0.57	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13RCLSPO-BTTS	—	64.5%	—	0.64 / 0.65	0.36	14,400 / 463	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lens to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL	43.6%	38.5%	+5.1 pts	0.38 / 0.39	0.62	25,483 / 4,154	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Sporting CP to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO	32.5%	35.5%	−3.0 pts	0.35 / 0.36	0.65	1,344 / 25,926	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RCLSPO-TIE	23.9%	24.5%	−0.6 pts	0.24 / 0.25	0.76	2,019 / 22,838	Comparable seen 32 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lens to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL2	—	18.5%	—	0.18 / 0.19	0.82	0 / 3,761	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Lens to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL3	—	7.5%	—	0.07 / 0.08	0.93	3,499 / 543	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Sporting CP to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO2	—	16.5%	—	0.16 / 0.17	0.84	1,204 / 15,377	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Sporting CP to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO3	—	6.5%	—	0.06 / 0.07	0.94	1,950 / 4,423	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago

Team goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Lens over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL1	—	80.0%	—	0.78 / 0.82	0.22	945 / 102	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Lens over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL2	—	47.5%	—	0.46 / 0.49	0.54	5 / 125	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Lens over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-RCL3	—	22.5%	—	0.22 / 0.23	0.78	1,830 / 0	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Sporting CP over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO1	—	79.0%	—	0.78 / 0.80	0.22	5 / 125	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Sporting CP over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO2	—	46.0%	—	0.45 / 0.47	0.55	5 / 38	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Sporting CP over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-SPO3	—	21.5%	—	0.21 / 0.22	0.79	750 / 0	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-1	—	95.5%	—	0.95 / 0.96	0.05	721 / 3,282	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-2	—	83.0%	—	0.82 / 0.84	0.18	14,539 / 2,971	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-3	—	61.5%	—	0.61 / 0.62	0.39	2,931 / 1,703	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-4	—	39.5%	—	0.39 / 0.40	0.61	9,810 / 400	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-5	—	21.5%	—	0.21 / 0.22	0.79	2,612 / 0	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RCLSPO-6	—	9.5%	—	0.09 / 0.10	0.91	0 / 1,810	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 32 min ago

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:04:34.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	37.7%	35.8% – 39.8%	40.0%	2.50	10	43.6%	+5.9 pts
1x2:draw	25.5%	24.7% – 26.4%	26.7%	3.75	10	23.9%	−1.6 pts
1x2:away	36.5%	34.7% – 39.1%	38.1%	2.63	10	32.5%	−4.0 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:49.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	60.1%	59.6% – 60.9%	62.9%	1.59	7	—	—
total_goals:under:2.5	39.9%	39.1% – 40.4%	41.8%	2.39	7	—	—

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:49. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.60 · draw 3.75 · home 2.55	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.70 · draw 3.75 · home 2.45	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.67 · draw 3.91 · home 2.48	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBO	Match winner	away 2.47 · draw 3.35 · home 2.34	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.50 · draw 3.50 · home 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.40 · draw 3.75 · home 2.62	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.65 · draw 3.75 · home 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.67 · draw 3.85 · home 2.62	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betano	Match winner	away 2.75 · draw 3.75 · home 2.40	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.55 · draw 3.70 · home 2.50	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.39	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.53 · under 2.5 2.38	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.59 · under 2.5 2.45	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.57 · under 2.5 2.38	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.64 · under 2.5 2.46	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.60 · under 2.5 2.40	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.54 · under 2.5 2.27	11/10/2026, 09:30:49	11/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:04:34.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:41:52 (Last checked 23 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Lens	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:28 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Sporting CP	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:30 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	43.6%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	23.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	32.5%	supported	primary_target

Snapshot 172 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:04:34