UEFA Champions League·Wed 14 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Manchester CityvParis Saint Germain

Manchester City

32%

Draw

23%

Paris Saint Germain

45%

Got%OnIt gives Paris Saint Germain a 45% chance of winning. That is roughly 1 chance in 2.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.5 goals for Manchester City and 1.8 for Paris Saint Germain.
Manchester City won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.5 a game.
Paris Saint Germain won 5 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 a game.

What argues against it

Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Manchester City are 8th of 36 after 1 games; Paris Saint Germain are 1st.
Manchester City have won 1 and lost 0; Paris Saint Germain have won 1 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

Manchester City

W2–0at FC Porto8 Sept
L1–2v Real Madrid17 Mar
L0–3at Real Madrid11 Mar
W2–0v Galatasaray28 Jan
L1–3at Bodo/Glimt20 Jan
W2–1at Real Madrid10 Dec

Paris Saint Germain

W6–1v Slovan Bratislava9 Sept
D1–1at Bayern München6 May
W5–4v Bayern München28 Apr
W2–0at Liverpool14 Apr
W2–0v Liverpool8 Apr
W3–0at Chelsea17 Mar

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 202, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Manchester City)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (Paris Saint Germain)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-14T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:31 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:42 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:37 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationManchester City 3.1 d rest (short) · Paris Saint Germain 1 absent regular

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 21:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

Manchester City

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: Premier League H Ipswich +2.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Thu 17 SeptEFLH NorwichW 5–0counted as workload
Sun 20 SeptPLH SunderlandW 5–3counted as workload
Sun 11 OctPLA LiverpoolW 3–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 17 OctPLH Ipswich+2.8 d
Tue 20 OctUCLH AEK Athens FC+6 d
Sat 24 OctPLA Aston Villa+9.7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Premier League, Sun 11 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 66 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: P. Foden (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 82.9 CONFIRMED

Manchester City: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
G. Donnarumma · regular	G	90	270	90' Italy, 12 d before; 90' Italy, 9 d before
E. Haaland · regular	F	80	237	90' Norway, 13 d before; 67' Norway, 10 d before
A. Semenyo · regular	M	90	90	—
E. Fernández	M	80	80	—
N. O'Reilly	D	66	66	—
E. Anderson · regular	M	90	232	79' England, 11.1 d before; 63' England, 8 d before
M. Guéhi · regular	D	90	243	90' England, 11.1 d before; 63' England, 8 d before
R. Cherki · regular	M	90	196	76' France, 12 d before; 30' France, 9 d before
I. Ndiaye	M	56	56	—
Rúben Dias · regular	D	90	270	90' Portugal, 13 d before; 90' Portugal, 10 d before
Matheus Nunes	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 8 players, 1276 minutes — G. Donnarumma (90' Italy, 12 d before; 90' Italy, 9 d before); M. Kovačić (90' Croatia, 11.1 d before; 88' Croatia, 8 d before); E. Haaland (90' Norway, 13 d before; 67' Norway, 10 d before); E. Anderson (79' England, 11.1 d before; 63' England, 8 d before); M. Guéhi (90' England, 11.1 d before; 63' England, 8 d before); J. Gvardiol (90' Croatia, 11.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 8 d before); R. Cherki (76' France, 12 d before; 30' France, 9 d before); Rúben Dias (90' Portugal, 13 d before; 90' Portugal, 10 d before) CONFIRMED

Paris Saint Germain

4 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Ligue 1 A Strasbourg +2.8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptL1A MarseilleW 2–1counted as workload
Sat 10 OctL1H Le MansW 3–1counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 17 OctL1A Strasbourg+2.8 d
Tue 20 OctUCLH Barcelona+6 d
Sun 25 OctL1H Lyon+11 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Ligue 1, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 60 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: O. Dembele (F) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 9 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 76.9 CONFIRMED

Paris Saint Germain: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
João Neves · regular	M	58	66	8' Portugal, 13 d before; 0' Portugal, 10 d before
Pedro Fernández	M	58	58	—
Beraldo	M	59	59	—
M. Safonov · regular	G	90	90	—
L. Hernández	D	90	90	—
A. Hakimi · regular	D	72	72	—
I. Zabarnyi	D	90	270	90' Ukraine, 12 d before; 90' Ukraine, 9 d before
M. Akliouche	F	90	150	0' France, 12 d before; 60' France, 9 d before
Ferran Torres	F	90	90	—
M. Godts	F	59	154	75' Belgium, 12 d before; 20' Belgium, 9 d before
L. Digne	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 793 minutes — João Neves (8' Portugal, 13 d before; 0' Portugal, 10 d before); K. Kvaratskhelia (90' Georgia, 12 d before; 90' Georgia, 9 d before); D. Doué (76' France, 12 d before; 18' France, 9 d before); I. Zabarnyi (90' Ukraine, 12 d before; 90' Ukraine, 9 d before); M. Akliouche (0' France, 12 d before; 60' France, 9 d before); Vitinha (90' Portugal, 13 d before; 86' Portugal, 10 d before); M. Godts (75' Belgium, 12 d before; 20' Belgium, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed 1 h before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:42). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

Manchester City

None reported for this team.

Paris Saint Germain

A. Longoni · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
S. Mayulu · injury / absence: Groin Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Manchester City	32%	42%	45%
Draw	23%	24%	23%
Paris Saint Germain	45%	34%	34%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 3 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen 28 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives Manchester City a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (32% vs 45%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Manchester City

Manchester City: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 50%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 60%.

W2–0at FC Porto8 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2v Real Madrid17 Mar · in model evidence
L0–3at Real Madrid11 Mar · in model evidence
W2–0v Galatasaray28 Jan · in model evidence
L1–3at Bodo/Glimt20 Jan · in model evidence
W2–1at Real Madrid10 Dec · in model evidence

Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 3.0 and conceded 1.3 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 60%.

W6–1v Slovan Bratislava9 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1v Arsenal30 May · not in model evidence
D1–1at Bayern München6 May · in model evidence
W5–4v Bayern München28 Apr · in model evidence
W2–0at Liverpool14 Apr · in model evidence
W2–0v Liverpool8 Apr · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	12%
2 goals	20%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	18%
5 goals	12%
6 or more	11%
Over 1.5	—
Over 2.5	—
Over 3.5	—
Both teams score	—

Manchester City

Expected goals	1.48
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	17%

Paris Saint Germain

Expected goals	1.79
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	23%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability2 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

2 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 1 h ago.

Manchester City

Nobody listed for this team.

Paris Saint Germain

A. LongoniOutInjury
S. MayuluOutGroin Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season8th v 1st

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Manchester City

8th of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 2, conceded 0

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W1 D0 L0 (scored 2, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Paris Saint Germain

1st of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 6, conceded 1

Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 6, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games W (most recent last)

Table Last checked 19 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets14 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

Manchester City to win (90 minutes)

32%

45%

YES on Manchester City to WinManchester City wins in 90 minutes

32%45¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 58,849 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes)

45%

34%

YES on Paris Saint Germain to WinParis Saint Germain wins in 90 minutes

45%34¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 88,814 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

23%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

23%24¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 56,106 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawManchester City or Paris Saint Germain wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

77%78¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,832 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Paris Saint Germain to WinManchester City wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

55%67¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 25 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Manchester City to WinParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

68%56¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,699 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

97%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

—98¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 8,589 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

—5¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,532 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

87%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

—87¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 789 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

—14¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 538 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

68%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

—69¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,418 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

—33¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 629 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

46%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

—46¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

—55¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

27%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

—28¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,321 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

—75¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,421 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

14%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

—15¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,539 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

—88¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,740 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

—

68%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

—68¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

—33¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,037 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Winning margin

Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

25%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Manchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester City wins by 2 goals or more

—26¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,398 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Manchester City to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 1 goal · Manchester City not by 2+ goals

—77¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,822 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

12%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Manchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester City wins by 3 goals or more

—13¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,014 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Manchester City to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins or the match is drawn, or Manchester City wins by 2 goals or fewer · Manchester City not by 3+ goals

—90¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,590 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

15%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins by 2 goals or more

—16¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 810 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsManchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 1 goal · Paris Saint Germain not by 2+ goals

—86¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,375 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsParis Saint Germain wins by 3 goals or more

—8¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,571 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

NO on Paris Saint Germain to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsManchester City wins or the match is drawn, or Paris Saint Germain wins by 2 goals or fewer · Paris Saint Germain not by 3+ goals

—95¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,240 contracts at the ask · quote 28 min old

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 32.0% · draw 22.9% · away 45.1%
Expected goals: 1.48 – 1.79
Manchester City eligible matches: 31 (30 with xG)
Paris Saint Germain eligible matches: 45 (43 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's home probability is 12% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's away probability is 12% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Manchester City	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
8 Sept	FC Porto	away	2–0	2.32–0.28	W
17 Mar	Real Madrid	home	1–2	1.91–2.93	L
11 Mar	Real Madrid	away	0–3	0.59–2.63	L
28 Jan	Galatasaray	home	2–0	1.77–0.26	W
20 Jan	Bodo/Glimt	away	1–3	1.23–1.60	L
10 Dec	Real Madrid	away	2–1	2.60–1.50	W

Paris Saint Germain	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
9 Sept	Slovan Bratislava	home	6–1	—	W
6 May	Bayern München	away	1–1	1.06–1.41	D
28 Apr	Bayern München	home	5–4	1.90–3.06	W
14 Apr	Liverpool	away	2–0	1.25–1.94	W
8 Apr	Liverpool	home	2–0	2.35–0.17	W
17 Mar	Chelsea	away	3–0	1.09–1.26	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT14MCIPSG-BTTS	—	67.5%	—	0.67 / 0.68	0.33	0 / 1,037	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Manchester City to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-MCI	32.0%	44.5%	−12.5 pts	0.44 / 0.45	0.56	58,849 / 2,699	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Paris Saint Germain to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-PSG	45.1%	33.5%	+11.6 pts	0.33 / 0.34	0.67	88,814 / 25	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT14MCIPSG-TIE	22.9%	23.0%	−0.1 pts	0.22 / 0.24	0.78	56,106 / 12,832	Comparable seen 28 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Manchester City to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14MCIPSG-MCI2	—	24.5%	—	0.23 / 0.26	0.77	4,398 / 2,822	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Manchester City to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14MCIPSG-MCI3	—	11.5%	—	0.10 / 0.13	0.90	3,014 / 4,590	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14MCIPSG-PSG2	—	15.0%	—	0.14 / 0.16	0.86	810 / 2,375	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Paris Saint Germain to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT14MCIPSG-PSG3	—	6.5%	—	0.05 / 0.08	0.95	4,571 / 4,240	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14MCIPSG-1	—	96.5%	—	0.95 / 0.98	0.05	8,589 / 2,532	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14MCIPSG-2	—	86.5%	—	0.86 / 0.87	0.14	789 / 538	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14MCIPSG-3	—	68.0%	—	0.67 / 0.69	0.33	12,418 / 629	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14MCIPSG-4	—	45.5%	—	0.45 / 0.46	0.55	1 / 1	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14MCIPSG-5	—	26.5%	—	0.25 / 0.28	0.75	2,321 / 3,421	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT14MCIPSG-6	—	13.5%	—	0.12 / 0.15	0.88	1,539 / 3,740	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen 28 min ago

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 21:05:28.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	42.2%	41.5% – 43.0%	44.4%	2.25	10	32.0%	−10.2 pts
1x2:draw	24.1%	23.4% – 25.2%	25.2%	3.96	10	22.9%	−1.2 pts
1x2:away	33.5%	33.2% – 34.8%	35.7%	2.80	10	45.1%	+11.6 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:04.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	66.0%	64.6% – 67.9%	70.4%	1.42	7	—	—
total_goals:under:2.5	34.0%	32.1% – 35.4%	36.4%	2.75	7	—	—

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:31:05. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 2.86 · draw 3.98 · home 2.26	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betfair	Match winner	away 2.75 · draw 4.00 · home 2.20	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 2.89 · draw 4.11 · home 2.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
SBO	Match winner	away 2.66 · draw 3.55 · home 2.11	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
William Hill	Match winner	away 2.80 · draw 3.70 · home 2.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365	Match winner	away 2.70 · draw 4.00 · home 2.25	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Dafabet	Match winner	away 2.85 · draw 3.95 · home 2.29	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBet	Match winner	away 2.94 · draw 4.09 · home 2.32	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betano	Match winner	away 2.80 · draw 3.90 · home 2.30	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictor	Match winner	away 2.80 · draw 3.90 · home 2.20	11/10/2026, 09:31:04	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.39 · under 2.5 2.72	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 2.88	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.82	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.44 · under 2.5 2.75	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.39 · under 2.5 2.72	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.45 · under 2.5 2.82	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.42 · under 2.5 2.59	11/10/2026, 09:31:05	10/10/2026, 19:15:05

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 21:05:28.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:42:00 (Last checked 1 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · Manchester City	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:26 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Paris Saint Germain	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:27 (Last checked 19 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	32.0%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	22.9%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	45.1%	supported	primary_target

Snapshot 202 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 21:05:28