UEFA Champions League·Tue 13 Oct, 12:00 PDT

RB LeipzigvPSV Eindhoven

RB Leipzig

42%

Draw

22%

PSV Eindhoven

36%

Got%OnIt gives RB Leipzig a 42% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 5.

Worth knowing: RB Leipzig has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
On these inputs the model expects about 1.8 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.7 for PSV Eindhoven.
RB Leipzig won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 a game.
PSV Eindhoven won 1 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 a game.

What argues against it

RB Leipzig has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

RB Leipzig are 32nd of 36 after 1 games; PSV Eindhoven are 19th.
RB Leipzig have won 0 and lost 1; PSV Eindhoven have won 0 and lost 0.

Recent matches the model used

RB Leipzig

L1–4at Como10 Sept
L0–1at Sturm Graz29 Jan
W2–1v Sporting CP22 Jan
L2–3v Aston Villa10 Dec
L0–1at Inter26 Nov
L1–3at Celtic5 Nov

PSV Eindhoven

D1–1v Shakhtar Donetsk10 Sept
L1–2v Bayern München28 Jan
L0–3at Newcastle21 Jan
L2–3v Atletico Madrid9 Dec
W4–1at Liverpool26 Nov
D1–1at Olympiakos Piraeus4 Nov

It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 184, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (RB Leipzig)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Available at prediction timeseason figures (PSV Eindhoven)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Team situationRB Leipzig 3.1 d rest (short) · PSV Eindhoven 5 absent regulars

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.

Used in the model

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.

Context not yet proven to improve predictions

Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.

RB Leipzig

3.1 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: Bundesliga A Bayern München +3.9 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptBLA Bayer LeverkusenL 0–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctBLH Eintracht FrankfurtW 6–0counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Sat 17 OctBLA Bayern München+3.9 d
Wed 21 OctUCLA Real Madrid+8 d
Sat 24 OctBLH SV Elversberg+10.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 42 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 8 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 77.9 CONFIRMED

RB Leipzig: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
M. Vandevoordt · regular	G	90	180	0' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before
C. Nkunku	M	64	64	—
E. Banzuzi	M	73	73	—
D. Raum · regular	D	90	180	0' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before
C. Lukeba · regular	D	90	90	—
W. Orbán · regular	D	90	270	90' Hungary, 11 d before; 90' Hungary, 8 d before
Rômulo	F	90	90	—
A. Nusa · regular	M	64	153	15' Norway, 12 d before; 74' Norway, 9 d before
A. MaksimoviÄ	M	90	90	—
N. El Aynaoui	M	58	58	—
R. Baku · regular	D	58	58	0' Germany, 12 d before; 0' Germany, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 6 players, 662 minutes — M. Vandevoordt (0' Belgium, 11 d before; 90' Belgium, 8 d before); Ø. Nyland (90' Norway, 12 d before; 0' Norway, 9 d before); D. Raum (0' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before); W. Orbán (90' Hungary, 11 d before; 90' Hungary, 8 d before); N. Seiwald (46' Austria, 12 d before; 77' Austria, 9.1 d before); A. Nusa (15' Norway, 12 d before; 74' Norway, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

PSV Eindhoven

no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League A FC Porto +7 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

No match stored in the last 30 days.

Upcoming (14 days)

Tue 20 OctUCLA FC Porto+7 d

Players

Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Thu 10 Sept (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 9 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: J. Veerman (M) — reason unknown; J. Schouten (D) — reason unknown; I. Saibari (F) — reason unknown; Mauro Junior (D) — reason unknown; A. Salah-Eddine (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 5 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

PSV Eindhoven: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
F. Kostić	D	108	90' Serbia, 12 d before; 18' Serbia, 9 d before
L. Geertruida	D	0	—
A. Obispo	D	90	90' Curaçao, 11.9 d before; 0' Curaçao, 8.9 d before
K. Sano	M	0	—
R. Pepi	F	0	—
M. Kovář · regular	G	0	0' Czechia, 10 d before; 0' Czechia, 7 d before
I. Perišić · regular	F	180	90' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before
P. Wanner	M	0	—
S. Dest	D	0	—
G. Til · regular	M	46	46' Netherlands, 12 d before; 0' Netherlands, 9 d before
R. van Bommel	F	78	46' Netherlands, 12 d before; 32' Netherlands, 9 d before

International duty in 14 days: 7 players, 776 minutes — F. Kostić (90' Serbia, 12 d before; 18' Serbia, 9 d before); D. Man (67' Romania, 11 d before; 90' Romania, 8 d before); A. Obispo (90' Curaçao, 11.9 d before; 0' Curaçao, 8.9 d before); E. Bajraktarevic (90' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 11 d before; 27' Bosnia & Herzegovina, 8 d before); I. Perišić (90' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before); G. Til (46' Netherlands, 12 d before; 0' Netherlands, 9 d before); R. van Bommel (46' Netherlands, 12 d before; 32' Netherlands, 9 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.

RB Leipzig

A. Kone · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
A. Ouedraogo · injury / absence: Shoulder Injury · Missing Fixture
C. Baumgartner · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
L. Zingerle · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
M. Guiu · injury / absence: Hamstring Injury · Missing Fixture

PSV Eindhoven

A. Nagalo · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
A. Plea · injury / absence: Surgery · Missing Fixture
J. Schouten · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
K. Sildillia · injury / absence: Surgery · Missing Fixture
P. Wanner · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Missing Fixture
R. Pepi · injury / absence: Injury · Missing Fixture
S. Lammers · injury / absence: Lacking Match Fitness · Missing Fixture
S. Ouaissa · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
RB Leipzig	42%	53%	55%
Draw	22%	22%	21%
PSV Eindhoven	36%	26%	25%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 2 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median.Kalshi prices seen moments ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt gives RB Leipzig a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (42% vs 55%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 70%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 70%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 60%.

L1–4at Como10 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1at Sturm Graz29 Jan · in model evidence
W2–1v Sporting CP22 Jan · in model evidence
L2–3v Aston Villa10 Dec · in model evidence
L0–1at Inter26 Nov · in model evidence
L1–3at Celtic5 Nov · in model evidence

PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.9 and conceded 1.9 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
Both teams scored in 90%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 70%.

D1–1v Shakhtar Donetsk10 Sept · in model evidence
L1–2v Bayern München28 Jan · in model evidence
L0–3at Newcastle21 Jan · in model evidence
L2–3v Atletico Madrid9 Dec · in model evidence
W4–1at Liverpool26 Nov · in model evidence
D1–1at Olympiakos Piraeus4 Nov · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	3%
1 goal	11%
2 goals	19%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	19%
5 goals	13%
6 or more	14%
Over 1.5	—
Over 2.5	—
Over 3.5	—
Both teams score	—

RB Leipzig

Expected goals	1.81
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	19%

PSV Eindhoven

Expected goals	1.67
Scores at least once	—
Scores 2 or more	—
Clean sheet	16%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Player availability13 reported

Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.

13 players reported as out or doubtful.

Last checked 24 min ago.

RB Leipzig

A. KoneOutOff the roster
A. OuedraogoOutShoulder Injury
C. BaumgartnerOutThigh Injury
L. ZingerleOutOff the roster
M. GuiuOutHamstring Injury

PSV Eindhoven

A. NagaloOutOff the roster
A. PleaOutSurgery
J. SchoutenOutKnee Injury
K. SildilliaOutSurgery
P. WannerOutFoot Injury
R. PepiOutInjury
S. LammersOutLacking Match Fitness
S. OuaissaOutMuscle Injury

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsnot received

Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season32nd v 19th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

RB Leipzig

32nd of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 4

Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 4)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games L (most recent last)

PSV Eindhoven

19th of 36 · 1 pts · W0 D1 L0 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 1

Home W0 D1 L0 (scored 1, conceded 1) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)

Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 1 games

Last five league games D (most recent last)

Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.

All markets20 Kalshi contracts

Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Match winner

PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes)

36%

25%

YES on PSV Eindhoven to WinPSV Eindhoven wins in 90 minutes

36%25¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 31,228 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes)

42%

55%

YES on RB Leipzig to WinRB Leipzig wins in 90 minutes

42%55¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 5,657 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

22%

21%

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

22%21¢

Below Build's default 50% probability floor · 30,245 contracts at the ask · quote just now

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawRB Leipzig or PSV Eindhoven wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

78%80¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 4,519 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on PSV Eindhoven to WinRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

64%76¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,506 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on RB Leipzig to WinPSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

58%46¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 10,439 contracts at the ask · quote just now

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

98%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

—99¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 22,608 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

—3¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,620 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

90%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

—90¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,286 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

—11¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,276 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

74%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

—74¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 776 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

—27¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,420 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

53%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

—53¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 2,024 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

—48¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,002 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

33%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

—34¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 6,148 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

—68¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,450 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

18%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

—19¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,349 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

—83¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,636 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

—

70%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

—70¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote just now

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

—31¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 9,642 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Winning margin

PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

11%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins by 2 goals or more

—11¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,361 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or PSV Eindhoven wins by 1 goal · PSV Eindhoven not by 2+ goals

—90¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,244 contracts at the ask · quote just now

PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins by 3 goals or more

—4¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,175 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on PSV Eindhoven to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins or the match is drawn, or PSV Eindhoven wins by 2 goals or fewer · PSV Eindhoven not by 3+ goals

—97¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 11,660 contracts at the ask · quote just now

RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

34%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or more

—34¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,519 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 1 goal · RB Leipzig not by 2+ goals

—67¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 12,859 contracts at the ask · quote just now

RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

19%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig wins by 3 goals or more

—19¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 3,824 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on RB Leipzig to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven wins or the match is drawn, or RB Leipzig wins by 2 goals or fewer · RB Leipzig not by 3+ goals

—82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1 contract at the ask · quote just now

Team goals

PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

78%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on PSV Eindhoven Over 0.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 1 goal or more

—79¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 874 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on PSV Eindhoven Over 0.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven does not score · PSV Eindhoven under 0.5 goals

—24¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 225 contracts at the ask · quote just now

PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

45%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on PSV Eindhoven Over 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 2 goals or more

—46¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 390 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on PSV Eindhoven Over 1.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 1 goal or fewer · PSV Eindhoven under 1.5 goals

—57¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote just now

PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

20%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 3 goals or more

—21¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 14 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5 GoalsPSV Eindhoven scores 2 goals or fewer · PSV Eindhoven under 2.5 goals

—82¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1 contract at the ask · quote just now

RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

91%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on RB Leipzig Over 0.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 1 goal or more

—92¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,856 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on RB Leipzig Over 0.5 GoalsRB Leipzig does not score · RB Leipzig under 0.5 goals

—11¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 30 contracts at the ask · quote just now

RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

68%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on RB Leipzig Over 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 2 goals or more

—69¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 1,287 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on RB Leipzig Over 1.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 1 goal or fewer · RB Leipzig under 1.5 goals

—34¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote just now

RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

41%

Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition

YES on RB Leipzig Over 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 3 goals or more

—42¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 750 contracts at the ask · quote just now

NO on RB Leipzig Over 2.5 GoalsRB Leipzig scores 2 goals or fewer · RB Leipzig under 2.5 goals

—61¢

Champions League: result YES positions only under current policy · 125 contracts at the ask · quote just now

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 41.7% · draw 22.3% · away 36.0%
Expected goals: 1.81 – 1.67
RB Leipzig eligible matches: 17 (16 with xG)
PSV Eindhoven eligible matches: 29 (27 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
the model's away probability is 11% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
the model's home probability is 13% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

RB Leipzig	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Sept	Como	away	1–4	—	L
29 Jan	Sturm Graz	away	0–1	1.59–1.24	L
22 Jan	Sporting CP	home	2–1	2.32–0.92	W
10 Dec	Aston Villa	home	2–3	2.23–2.14	L
26 Nov	Inter	away	0–1	0.15–1.37	L
5 Nov	Celtic	away	1–3	1.13–1.63	L

PSV Eindhoven	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Sept	Shakhtar Donetsk	home	1–1	—	D
28 Jan	Bayern München	home	1–2	0.69–1.82	L
21 Jan	Newcastle	away	0–3	0.34–2.40	L
9 Dec	Atletico Madrid	home	2–3	2.67–2.23	L
26 Nov	Liverpool	away	4–1	2.17–2.50	W
4 Nov	Olympiakos Piraeus	away	1–1	0.35–0.92	D

Kalshi contracts and the model

20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13RBLPSV-BTTS	—	69.5%	—	0.69 / 0.70	0.31	0 / 9,642	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
PSV Eindhoven to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV	36.0%	24.5%	+11.5 pts	0.24 / 0.25	0.76	31,228 / 10,506	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
RB Leipzig to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL	41.7%	54.5%	−12.8 pts	0.54 / 0.55	0.46	5,657 / 10,439	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13RBLPSV-TIE	22.3%	20.5%	+1.8 pts	0.20 / 0.21	0.80	30,245 / 4,519	Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV2	—	10.5%	—	0.10 / 0.11	0.90	1,361 / 1,244	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
PSV Eindhoven to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV3	—	3.5%	—	0.03 / 0.04	0.97	1,175 / 11,660	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
RB Leipzig to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL2	—	33.5%	—	0.33 / 0.34	0.67	1,519 / 12,859	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
RB Leipzig to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL3	—	18.5%	—	0.18 / 0.19	0.82	3,824 / 1	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Team goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
PSV Eindhoven over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV1	—	77.5%	—	0.76 / 0.79	0.24	874 / 225	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
PSV Eindhoven over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV2	—	44.5%	—	0.43 / 0.46	0.57	390 / 125	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
PSV Eindhoven over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-PSV3	—	19.5%	—	0.18 / 0.21	0.82	14 / 1	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
RB Leipzig over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL1	—	90.5%	—	0.89 / 0.92	0.11	1,856 / 30	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
RB Leipzig over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL2	—	67.5%	—	0.66 / 0.69	0.34	1,287 / 125	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
RB Leipzig over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-RBL3	—	40.5%	—	0.39 / 0.42	0.61	750 / 125	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-1	—	98.0%	—	0.97 / 0.99	0.03	22,608 / 6,620	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-2	—	89.5%	—	0.89 / 0.90	0.11	1,286 / 1,276	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-3	—	73.5%	—	0.73 / 0.74	0.27	776 / 3,420	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-4	—	52.5%	—	0.52 / 0.53	0.48	2,024 / 11,002	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-5	—	33.0%	—	0.32 / 0.34	0.68	6,148 / 3,450	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13RBLPSV-6	—	18.0%	—	0.17 / 0.19	0.83	3,349 / 3,636	Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:51.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	52.6%	50.9% – 54.1%	55.4%	1.80	10	41.7%	−10.9 pts
1x2:draw	22.1%	21.0% – 23.4%	23.0%	4.34	10	22.3%	+0.3 pts
1x2:away	25.6%	24.5% – 26.2%	26.6%	3.77	10	36.0%	+10.4 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:53.

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	69.7%	68.4% – 70.3%	74.6%	1.34	7	—	—
total_goals:under:2.5	30.3%	29.7% – 31.6%	32.3%	3.10	7	—	—

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:53. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 3.72 · draw 4.30 · home 1.85	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betfair	Match winner	away 3.80 · draw 4.50 · home 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 3.78 · draw 4.56 · home 1.81	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
SBO	Match winner	away 3.46 · draw 3.80 · home 1.74	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
William Hill	Match winner	away 3.50 · draw 4.00 · home 1.80	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365	Match winner	away 3.75 · draw 4.33 · home 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Dafabet	Match winner	away 3.85 · draw 4.40 · home 1.82	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBet	Match winner	away 3.82 · draw 4.41 · home 1.90	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betano	Match winner	away 3.65 · draw 4.35 · home 1.82	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictor	Match winner	away 3.80 · draw 4.20 · home 1.75	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.32 · under 2.5 3.04	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.33 · under 2.5 3.10	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.22	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.20	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.32 · under 2.5 3.04	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.38 · under 2.5 3.10	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.34 · under 2.5 2.90	11/10/2026, 09:30:53	11/10/2026, 05:30:20

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:51.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	ok	11/10/2026, 19:41:56 (Last checked 24 min ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026
Season statistics · RB Leipzig	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:29 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · PSV Eindhoven	ok	11/10/2026, 01:39:29 (Last checked 18 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	41.7%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	22.3%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	36.0%	supported	primary_target

Snapshot 184 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:51