Vikingv
Bayern München
Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a 70% chance of winning. That is roughly 2 chances in 3.
Worth knowing: Viking has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
Recent developments
Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.
Sources not checked since the prediction was made; this is not a statement that nothing changed.
Why
What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.
Used by the model
- The estimate uses only finished UEFA Champions League matches: the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded.
- On these inputs the model expects about 1.2 goals for Viking and 2.8 for Bayern München.
- Viking won 0 of the 1 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.0 a game.
- Bayern München won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.8 a game.
What argues against it
- Viking has little or no UEFA Champions League history in our data, so the estimate starts from the league average for them.
- Got%OnIt does not adjust for injuries or lineups. Use the player information above to judge that yourself.
- The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.
Not used by the model · context
- Viking are 29th of 36 after 1 games; Bayern München are 2nd.
- Viking have won 0 and lost 1; Bayern München have won 1 and lost 0.
Recent matches the model used
Viking
- L1–3at VfB Stuttgart9 Sept
Bayern München
- W5–0v Bodo/Glimt10 Sept
- D1–1v Paris Saint Germain6 May
- L4–5at Paris Saint Germain28 Apr
- W4–3v Real Madrid15 Apr
- W2–1at Real Madrid7 Apr
- W4–1v Atalanta18 Mar
It does not use injuries, starting lineups, league position, form tables or any market price. Those appear below as extra information for you to weigh.
What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT
The frozen prediction was made Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT (evidence cutoff Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT; snapshot 186, soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.
- Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelWed 7 Oct, 19:23 PDT518 finished UEFA Champions League matches (498 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-09-10T19:00:00+00:00
- Available at prediction timeleague tableSun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Bayern München)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Available at prediction timeseason figures (Viking)Sun 11 Oct, 01:39 PDTreceived
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionfixture scheduleSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesSun 11 Oct, 09:30 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
- Available at prediction timeinjury reportSun 11 Oct, 19:41 PDTreceived
- Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageSun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
- Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match
Team situationViking schedule unknown · Bayern München 3.2 d rest (short)
Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Sun 11 Oct, 20:05 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label; none of it changes the estimate.
Used in the model
- finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
- the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED
The frozen working engine (soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1) is unchanged by the competition expansion. The cross-competition and player evidence below was evaluated in leak-free walk-forward experiments (report §14) and is shown as context until such an experiment justifies a model change.
Context not yet proven to improve predictions
Not used by the model: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Shown for you to weigh; no figure here is an adjustment.
Viking
no match stored in the previous 30 days · 0 in 7 days, 0 in 14, 0 in 30 CONFIRMED
Next: UEFA Champions League A Aston Villa +8 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
No match stored in the last 30 days.
Upcoming (14 days)
- Wed 21 OctUCLA Aston Villa+8 d
Players
Last stored line-up: UEFA Champions League, Wed 9 Sept (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 3 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: regulars not defined yet (fewer than 5 stored line-ups) CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 2 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Moi | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| K. Askildsen | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| H. Heggheim | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| P. Christiansen | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| K. Haugen | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| A. Ostbo | G | 0 | 0 | — |
| G. Stensness | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| J. Daland | D | 0 | 0 | — |
| J. Bell | M | 0 | 0 | — |
| Z. Tripic | F | 0 | 0 | — |
| H. Bjordal | F | 0 | 0 | — |
International duty in 14 days: none in the stored national-team competitions CONFIRMED
Bayern München
3.2 days since the previous match (short rest) · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED
Next: Bundesliga H RB Leipzig +3.9 d
Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)
- Fri 18 SeptBLH Union BerlinW 7–0counted as workload
- Sat 10 OctBLA FC AugsburgD 2–2counted as workload
Upcoming (14 days)
- Sat 17 OctBLH RB Leipzig+3.9 d
- Wed 21 OctUCLH Arsenal+8 d
- Sun 25 OctBLA SC Freiburg+11.9 d
Players
Last stored line-up: Bundesliga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 20 in the squad); 59 line-ups stored.
Regulars absent from the last squad: K. Laimer (M) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED
Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 85.3 CONFIRMED
| Last XI | Pos | Min 7 d | Min 14 d | International (14 d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Saibari | M | 67 | 67 | — |
| H. Kane · regular | F | 90 | 242 | 70' England, 10.1 d before; 82' England, 7 d before |
| L. Díaz · regular | M | 87 | 87 | — |
| A. Pavlović · regular | M | 87 | 265 | 88' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before |
| J. Kimmich · regular | M | 90 | 90 | — |
| J. Tah · regular | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| M. Neuer · regular | G | 90 | 90 | — |
| M. Olise · regular | M | 90 | 210 | 90' France, 11 d before; 30' France, 8 d before |
| A. Davies | D | 90 | 90 | — |
| D. Upamecano · regular | D | 90 | 180 | 90' France, 11 d before |
| J. Stanišić · regular | D | 67 | 233 | 76' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before |
International duty in 14 days: 9 players, 1156 minutes — T. Bischof (77' Germany, 12 d before; 83' Germany, 9 d before); J. Urbig (90' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before); L. Karl (0' Germany, 12 d before; 64' Germany, 9 d before); S. Gnabry (46' Germany, 12 d before); H. Kane (70' England, 10.1 d before; 82' England, 7 d before); A. Pavlović (88' Germany, 12 d before; 90' Germany, 9 d before); M. Olise (90' France, 11 d before; 30' France, 8 d before); D. Upamecano (90' France, 11 d before); J. Stanišić (76' Croatia, 10.1 d before; 90' Croatia, 7 d before) CONFIRMED
Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED
Provider report observed under an hour before this read (Sun 11 Oct, 19:41). A player missing from this list is not a fit player.
Viking
- A. Baertelsen · injury / absence: Foot Injury · Missing Fixture
- K. Frimpong · injury / absence: Off the roster · Missing Fixture
- M. Roseth · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
- S. Bjorshol · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
- V. Berisha · injury / absence: Thigh Injury · Missing Fixture
Bayern München
- J. Musiala · injury / absence: Muscle Injury · Missing Fixture
- T. Buchmann · injury / absence: Knee Injury · Missing Fixture
Starting line-ups UNKNOWN
Not observed yet. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.
Unknown or unavailable
- Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
- International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
- A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
- The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
- Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
- Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN
Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.
Pregame comparison
What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent. Got%OnIt → Books → Kalshi.
| Outcome | Got%OnIt | Books | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Viking | 14% | 5% | 5% |
| Draw | 16% | 7% | 6% |
| Bayern München | 70% | 88% | 90% |
Got%OnIt gives Bayern München a lower chance of winning than Kalshi (70% vs 90%). A gap is information, not proof of an edge.
Scoring evidence3 + 10 matches observed · model estimate
Observed — results as they happened
Viking
- Viking: 3 finished matches (1 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 2.0 and conceded 2.0 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 0%.
- Both teams scored in 100%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 100%.
- L1–3at VfB Stuttgart9 Sept · in model evidence
- W3–1v Dinamo Zagreb26 Aug · not in model evidence
- D2–2at Dinamo Zagreb18 Aug · not in model evidence
Bayern München
- Bayern München: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
- Scored 3.3 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 100%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
- Both teams scored in 80%; over 1.5 goals in 100%, over 2.5 in 80%.
- W5–0v Bodo/Glimt10 Sept · in model evidence
- D1–1v Paris Saint Germain6 May · in model evidence
- L4–5at Paris Saint Germain28 Apr · in model evidence
- W4–3v Real Madrid15 Apr · in model evidence
- W2–1at Real Madrid7 Apr · in model evidence
- W4–1v Atalanta18 Mar · in model evidence
observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from
Model estimate — frozen Wed 7 Oct, 19:52 PDT
Total goals
| 0 goals | 2% |
| 1 goal | 7% |
| 2 goals | 15% |
| 3 goals | 20% |
| 4 goals | 20% |
| 5 goals | 16% |
| 6 or more | 22% |
| Over 1.5 | — |
| Over 2.5 | — |
| Over 3.5 | — |
| Both teams score | — |
Viking
| Expected goals | 1.21 |
| Scores at least once | — |
| Scores 2 or more | — |
| Clean sheet | 6% |
Bayern München
| Expected goals | 2.79 |
| Scores at least once | — |
| Scores 2 or more | — |
| Clean sheet | 30% |
model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since
Player availability7 reported
Extra information for you to weigh; it did not change the estimate.
7 players reported as out or doubtful.
Last checked 24 min ago.
Viking
- A. BaertelsenOutFoot Injury
- K. FrimpongOutOff the roster
- M. RosethOutKnee Injury
- S. BjorsholOutKnee Injury
- V. BerishaOutThigh Injury
Bayern München
- J. MusialaOutMuscle Injury
- T. BuchmannOutKnee Injury
A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.
Starting lineupsnot received
Starting lineups are usually published about an hour before kickoff. We start checking 90 minutes before the game.
This season29th v 2nd
This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.
Viking
29th of 36 · 0 pts · W0 D0 L1 from 1 games · scored 1, conceded 3
Home W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L1 (scored 1, conceded 3)
Clean sheets 0 · failed to score 0 in 3 games
Last five league games L (most recent last)
Bayern München
2nd of 36 · 3 pts · W1 D0 L0 from 1 games · scored 5, conceded 0
Home W1 D0 L0 (scored 5, conceded 0) · Away W0 D0 L0 (scored 0, conceded 0)
Clean sheets 1 · failed to score 0 in 1 games
Last five league games W (most recent last)
Table Last checked 18 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 14 Sept.
All markets20 Kalshi contracts
Every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.
Bayern München to win (90 minutes)70%90%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Draw (90 minutes)16%6%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
Viking to win (90 minutes)14%5%
The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.
A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)——Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition · No Kalshi quote
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—96%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—86%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)—69%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)—50%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)—31%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Both teams to score (90 minutes)—56%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—76%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—56%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Viking to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—2%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Viking to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)——Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition · No Kalshi quote
Bayern München over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—98%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Bayern München over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—90%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Bayern München over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—74%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Viking over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)—56%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Viking over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)—21%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Viking over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)—7%Outside Got%OnIt's scope for this competition
Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence
Model snapshot
- Probabilities
- home 14.0% · draw 15.7% · away 70.3%
- Expected goals
- 1.21 – 2.79
- Viking eligible matches
- 1 (0 with xG)
- Bayern München eligible matches
- 41 (40 with xG)
- Competition matches in the evidence set
- 518 by season 2023:124, 2024:188, 2025:188, 2026:18
- xG weight
- 0.5
- Cutoff
- 07/10/2026, 19:52:04
- Maturity
- historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
- Flags
- thin evidence: home side has 1 eligible match; home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes; xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Model limitations recorded with the snapshot
- draws are under-predicted on average (Phase 4–5E: mean predicted ≈ 0.23 vs observed ≈ 0.25) and the independent-Poisson draw probability has a ceiling near 0.33; no correction is applied
- xG is provisionally retained (Phase 5B: PROMISING BUT NOT PROVEN); goals-only control predictions must be produced alongside for matched comparison
- Over/Under 2.5 is encouraging on the Premier League and supported on La Liga and the Bundesliga in historical chronological evaluation only; BTTS is mathematically supported, not validated; neither is forward-validated
- evidence is restricted to the target's own competition (UEFA Champions League; seasons 2023–2026 as observed before the cutoff); promoted clubs start from the league-average fallback with no lower-division history
- historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0 (forward evidence maturity: none)
- Champions League snapshots carry 1X2 only: Phase 8A found over/under 2.5 NOT SUPPORTED and BTTS only encouraging on this competition (decision A applies to 1X2); results are the 90-minute score, extra time and shoot-outs never settle a market
- thin evidence: home side has 1 eligible match
- home side is a cold start (new_to_competition): league-average fallback contributes
- xG stored for 498 of 518 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
- the model's away probability is 19% points lower than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
- the model's draw probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
- the model's home probability is 10% points higher than the Kalshi reference: the market disagrees
- draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied
- UEFA Champions League: only 90-minute 1X2 is supported; totals, BTTS and spreads are shown as market data only
Matches the model used (most recent first)
the matches the model actually used (same competition, finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.
| Viking | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Sept | VfB Stuttgart | away | 1–3 | — | L |
| Bayern München | Opponent | Venue | Score | xG | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sept | Bodo/Glimt | home | 5–0 | — | W |
| 6 May | Paris Saint Germain | home | 1–1 | 1.41–1.06 | D |
| 28 Apr | Paris Saint Germain | away | 4–5 | 3.06–1.90 | L |
| 15 Apr | Real Madrid | home | 4–3 | 2.14–2.25 | W |
| 7 Apr | Real Madrid | away | 2–1 | 2.92–2.20 | W |
| 18 Mar | Atalanta | home | 4–1 | 3.61–2.30 | W |
Kalshi contracts and the model
20 contracts across 6 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).
| Both teams to score | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXUCLBTTS-26OCT13VIKBMU-BTTS | — | 55.5% | — | 0.55 / 0.56 | 0.45 | 22,445 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Match winner | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU | 70.3% | 89.5% | −19.2 pts | 0.89 / 0.90 | 0.11 | 204,982 / 4,754 | Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Viking to win (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK | 14.0% | 4.5% | +9.5 pts | 0.04 / 0.05 | 0.96 | 244,505 / 188 | Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Draw | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (90 minutes) KXUCLGAME-26OCT13VIKBMU-TIE | 15.7% | 5.5% | +10.2 pts | 0.05 / 0.06 | 0.95 | 55,486 / 43,391 | Comparable seen moments ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet |
| Winning margin | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU2 | — | 75.5% | — | 0.75 / 0.76 | 0.25 | 3,566 / 531 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Bayern München to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU3 | — | 56.5% | — | 0.56 / 0.57 | 0.44 | 3,159 / 4,741 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Viking to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK2 | — | 1.5% | — | 0.01 / 0.02 | 0.99 | 6,390 / 250 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Viking to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLSPREAD-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK3 | — | — | — | — / 0.02 | — | 2,838 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Team goals | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU1 | — | 98.0% | — | 0.97 / 0.99 | 0.03 | 79 / 61 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Bayern München over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU2 | — | 90.0% | — | 0.88 / 0.92 | 0.12 | 1,715 / 47 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Bayern München over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-BMU3 | — | 73.5% | — | 0.72 / 0.75 | 0.28 | 750 / 29 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Viking over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK1 | — | 55.5% | — | 0.54 / 0.57 | 0.46 | 750 / 130 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Viking over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK2 | — | 20.5% | — | 0.19 / 0.22 | 0.81 | 1,171 / 103 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Viking over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTEAMTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-VIK3 | — | 6.5% | — | 0.06 / 0.07 | 0.94 | 73 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Total goals | Model | Market ref. | Diff | YES bid / ask | NO ask | Resting (YES / NO) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-1 | — | — | — | 0.98 / — | 0.02 | 0 / 4,204 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-2 | — | 95.5% | — | 0.95 / 0.96 | 0.05 | 13,094 / 595 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-3 | — | 85.5% | — | 0.85 / 0.86 | 0.15 | 2,808 / 133 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-4 | — | 68.5% | — | 0.68 / 0.69 | 0.32 | 3,974 / 850 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-5 | — | 49.5% | — | 0.49 / 0.50 | 0.51 | 8,400 / 0 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
| Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXUCLTOTAL-26OCT13VIKBMU-6 | — | 31.0% | — | 0.30 / 0.32 | 0.70 | 1,579 / 1,290 | Not compared: this competition supports 1X2 only seen moments ago |
Bookmaker consensus
median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 11/10/2026, 20:05:53.
| Match result | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 4.6% | 3.9% – 7.2% | 4.8% | 21.00 | 10 | 14.0% | +9.5 pts |
| 1x2:draw | 7.4% | 6.4% – 10.4% | 7.7% | 13.00 | 10 | 15.7% | +8.3 pts |
| 1x2:away | 87.9% | 82.5% – 89.7% | 91.7% | 1.09 | 10 | 70.3% | −17.6 pts |
10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:54.
| Total goals, 2.5 line | Consensus | Range | Raw median | Odds median | Bookmakers | Model | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| total_goals:over:2.5 | 82.3% | 80.9% – 84.4% | 89.3% | 1.12 | 6 | — | — |
| total_goals:under:2.5 | 17.7% | 15.6% – 19.1% | 19.1% | 5.25 | 6 | — | — |
6 bookmaker pages, latest observed 11/10/2026, 09:30:54. UEFA club competition: only 90-minute 1X2 is historically evaluated; totals are market data only
Every bookmaker page used (16)
| Bookmaker | Market | Odds | Observed | Provider stamp |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | Match winner | away 1.09 · draw 13.00 · home 21.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betfair | Match winner | away 1.08 · draw 14.00 · home 21.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Pinnacle | Match winner | away 1.09 · draw 14.42 · home 18.76 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| SBO | Match winner | away 1.09 · draw 8.68 · home 12.52 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| William Hill | Match winner | away 1.08 · draw 13.00 · home 21.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Bet365 | Match winner | away 1.08 · draw 13.00 · home 19.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Dafabet | Match winner | away 1.11 · draw 12.00 · home 19.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| 1xBet | Match winner | away 1.10 · draw 15.50 · home 25.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betano | Match winner | away 1.10 · draw 10.50 · home 23.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| BetVictor | Match winner | away 1.07 · draw 11.00 · home 21.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Marathonbet | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.95 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betfair | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 6.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Bet365 | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.14 · under 2.5 5.50 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| 1xBet | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.11 · under 2.5 4.95 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| Betano | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.18 · under 2.5 5.00 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
| BetVictor | Over/Under 2.5 | over 2.5 1.13 · under 2.5 5.50 | 11/10/2026, 09:30:54 | 11/10/2026, 05:30:20 |
Sports evidence trail
availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 11/10/2026, 20:05:53.
| Dataset | State | Observed | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Injuries | ok | 11/10/2026, 19:41:56 (Last checked 24 min ago) | fresh |
| Lineups | not_observed | — | before the window |
| Standings | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:06 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh; provider stamp 13/09/2026 |
| Season statistics · Viking | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:43 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
| Season statistics · Bayern München | ok | 11/10/2026, 01:39:28 (Last checked 18 h ago) | fresh |
Every stored market probability of the snapshot
Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.
| Key | Probability | Support | Historical evaluation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1x2:home | 14.0% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:draw | 15.7% | supported | primary_target |
| 1x2:away | 70.3% | supported | primary_target |
Snapshot 186 · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · data as of 11/10/2026, 20:05:53