La Liga·Sun 18 Oct, 12:00 PDT

Real MadridvSevilla

Real Madrid

76%

Draw

15%

Sevilla

Got%OnIt gives Real Madrid a 76% chance of winning. That is roughly 3 chances in 4.

Estimate available
Evidence: tested on past results
Usable Kalshi price

Deep Dive Every figure on this page is Deep Dive's: Core plus availability and schedule-load adjustments. Compare the modes.

Why

What the estimate is built from, and what argues against it.

Used by the model

Deep Dive starts from Core's estimate (past matches from 8 competitions (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League): the goals each side scored and conceded over the last three seasons, with recent matches counting more, and the home advantage seen in this competition, plus the quality of the chances created (expected goals) where it was recorded) and adjusts the expected goals for reported absences, the confirmed line-up and goalkeeper where known, and each side's schedule load, each adjustment with a stated uncertainty band. When nothing defensible applies it equals Core.
Matches behind the estimate: Real Madrid 163, Sevilla 127 (across 8 competitions).
On these inputs the model expects about 2.5 goals for Real Madrid and 0.7 for Sevilla.
Real Madrid won 4 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 a game.
Sevilla won 3 of the 6 most recent matches the model used, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.3 a game.

What argues against it

Deep Dive's availability and schedule adjustments are stated priors with bands, not yet validated on settled matches; the band beside each figure shows how far they could move it.
The model tends to give draws slightly too little chance.

Not used by the model · context

Real Madrid are 4th of 20 after 8 games; Sevilla are 5th.
Real Madrid have won 6 and lost 2; Sevilla have won 4 and lost 2.

Recent form descriptive · from the matches the model used

Real Madrid

8W 0D 2L in the last 10 (2.40 points a match) · goals 25–11 · xG 21.4–9.1 (9 of 10 with xG) · last match won

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L, goals 11–6, xG 7.5–5.0.

This season's 9 matches carry 14 % of this side's weight in the fit; the last 5 carry 8 %; effective sample ≈ 119 of 163 matches.

Sevilla

5W 1D 4L in the last 10 (1.60 points a match) · goals 13–13 · xG 8.5–12.4 (10 of 10 with xG) · last match lost

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L, goals 5–7, xG 3.5–5.9.

This season's 7 matches carry 14 % of this side's weight in the fit; the last 5 carry 10 %; effective sample ≈ 90 of 127 matches.

Core applies no separate form or momentum term: these matches shape its strength estimate only through the weights above (half-life 365 days, refit at every snapshot). Deep Dive adds availability and schedule-load adjustments on top of that estimate, not a form adjustment.

Recent matches the model used

Real Madrid

W1–0v Villarreal10 Oct
L1–2at Atletico Madrid20 Sept
W3–2at Elche15 Sept
W4–1v Rayo Vallecano12 Sept
W2–1v Inter8 Sept
L0–1at Real Betis4 Sept

Sevilla

L1–3v Barcelona19 Sept
W1–0at Deportivo La Coruna16 Sept
W1–0v Valencia11 Sept
D1–1at Espanyol6 Sept
L1–3v Atletico Madrid29 Aug
W3–1at Athletic Club22 Aug

It does not use league position, form tables or any market price. The availability and schedule facts it used are listed below with their labels; the rest is context for you to weigh.

What Got%OnIt knewprediction made Mon 12 Oct, 09:35 PDT

The frozen prediction was made Mon 12 Oct, 09:35 PDT (evidence cutoff Mon 12 Oct, 09:35 PDT; snapshot 981, soccer-deepdive-v1). Each item below is dated by when Got%OnIt observed it. Only the evidence set is a model input; everything else is context, whenever it arrived.

Used by the modelevidence set used by the modelSun 11 Oct, 13:55 PDT7044 finished La Liga matches (6964 with xG); latest kicked off 2026-10-11T19:00:00+00:00
Available at prediction timefixture scheduleMon 12 Oct, 09:30 PDTkick-off 2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00, status NS
Current information — not included in frozen predictionbookmaker pagesMon 12 Oct, 09:41 PDTlatest bookmaker page used for the consensus
Current information — not included in frozen predictioninjury reportMon 12 Oct, 21:54 PDTchecked: nothing listed
Current information — not included in frozen predictionleague tableMon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionseason figures (Sevilla)Mon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionseason figures (Real Madrid)Mon 12 Oct, 21:55 PDTreceived
Current information — not included in frozen predictionKalshi quotes on this pageMon 12 Oct, 22:58 PDTlatest observation of the quotes shown
Observation time unknownstarting line-upstime unknownnot collected for this match

Scoring evidence10 + 10 matches observed · model estimate

Observed — results as they happened

Real Madrid

Real Madrid: 10 finished matches (10 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 2.4 and conceded 1.0 a game; scored in 90%, kept a clean sheet in 30%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 70%, over 2.5 in 70%.

W1–0v Villarreal10 Oct · in model evidence
L1–2at Atletico Madrid20 Sept · in model evidence
W3–2at Elche15 Sept · in model evidence
W4–1v Rayo Vallecano12 Sept · in model evidence
L0–1at Real Betis4 Sept · in model evidence
W4–0v Malaga30 Aug · in model evidence

Sevilla

Sevilla: 10 finished matches (9 of them in the model's evidence set).
Scored 1.3 and conceded 1.4 a game; scored in 80%, kept a clean sheet in 20%.
Both teams scored in 60%; over 1.5 goals in 60%, over 2.5 in 50%.

D3–3at Levante12 Oct · not in model evidence
L1–3v Barcelona19 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0at Deportivo La Coruna16 Sept · in model evidence
W1–0v Valencia11 Sept · in model evidence
D1–1at Espanyol6 Sept · in model evidence
L1–3v Atletico Madrid29 Aug · in model evidence

observed results as the provider reported them, counted by Got%OnIt; frequencies from a sample this small are descriptive, not a probability; a row 'in the model's evidence' is one of the finished matches the frozen estimate was computed from

Model estimate — frozen Mon 12 Oct, 09:35 PDT

Total goals

0 goals	4%
1 goal	13%
2 goals	21%
3 goals	22%
4 goals	18%
5 goals	11%
6 or more	10%
Over 1.5	83%
Over 2.5	62%
Over 3.5	39%
Both teams score	46%

Real Madrid

Expected goals	2.49
Scores at least once	92%
Scores 2 or more	71%
Clean sheet	50%

Sevilla

Expected goals	0.70
Scores at least once	50%
Scores 2 or more	15%
Clean sheet	8%

model-estimated probabilities frozen at the prediction instant (independent Poisson score grid); not observed frequencies and not recomputed since

Pregame comparison

What each source said before kick-off, on one scale: the chance of each result in percent: Got%OnIt's estimate, the bookmaker estimate and the Kalshi reference price. Agreement between them is not proof of accuracy.

Outcome	Got%OnIt	Books	Kalshi
Real Madrid	76%	76%	79%
Draw	15%	15%	14%
Sevilla	8%	9%	10%

Based on 10 bookmakers, pages observed 6 days before kickoff; each book's margin removed proportionally before taking the median, so these may be outdated.Kalshi prices seen 33 min ago.Percentages are rounded; market medians need not total exactly 100%.

Got%OnIt and the markets broadly agree on this match.

Kalshi market choices14 Kalshi contracts · 115 modelled

Every modelled market first (exact figure, simulation and whether Kalshi lists it), then every Kalshi contract matched to this match, with both sides of each: open a contract to see what YES and NO win on, the price of that side and whether Build can use it. Got%OnIt shows an estimate only where it has one; “Limited evidence” marks a market type that has not been historically evaluated. The Kalshi figure beside each question is the stored midpoint; the YES and NO prices are the resting asks a buyer of that side would pay, before fees.

Every modelled market 115 from the grid · 28 on Kalshi · 52 simulated

Deep Dive · frozen snapshot (Core + adjustments) The exact grid figure is the headline for every grid-expressible market; the simulation column is its Monte Carlo estimate with one standard error. Every market here settles on the 90-minute score (plus stoppage time): extra time and penalty shoot-outs never count. No market including extra time is modelled or listed; the registry's result rule for every competition is regulation time.

Match result

Real Madrid to win76.4%76.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 79¢

Draw15.5%15.5% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 15¢

Sevilla to win8.2%8.1% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 10¢

Double chance

Real Madrid or draw limited evidence91.8%91.9% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 91¢

Sevilla or draw limited evidence23.6%23.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 22¢

Not a draw limited evidence84.5%84.5% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢

Draw no bet

Real Madrid to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence90.3%90.4% ± 0.1no

Sevilla to win, stake returned on a draw limited evidence9.7%9.6% ± 0.1no

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals in total limited evidence95.7%95.6% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 98¢

Under 0.5 goals in total limited evidence4.3%4.4% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 6¢

Over 1.5 goals in total limited evidence82.9%82.8% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 89¢

Under 1.5 goals in total limited evidence17.1%17.2% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 14¢

Over 2.5 goals in total61.7%61.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 71¢

Under 2.5 goals in total38.3%38.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 31¢

Over 3.5 goals in total limited evidence39.4%39.7% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 51¢

Under 3.5 goals in total limited evidence60.6%60.3% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 53¢

Over 4.5 goals in total limited evidence21.7%21.9% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 31¢

Under 4.5 goals in total limited evidence78.3%78.1% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 73¢

Over 5.5 goals in total limited evidence10.4%10.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 17¢

Under 5.5 goals in total limited evidence89.6%89.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 86¢

Both teams to score

Both teams to score limited evidence46.2%46.1% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 54¢

At least one team fails to score limited evidence53.8%53.9% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 48¢

Team goals

Real Madrid over 0.5 goals limited evidence91.7%91.7% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid under 0.5 goals limited evidence8.3%8.3% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid over 1.5 goals limited evidence71.1%71.1% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid under 1.5 goals limited evidence28.9%28.9% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid over 2.5 goals limited evidence45.3%45.4% ± 0.2no

Real Madrid under 2.5 goals limited evidence54.7%54.6% ± 0.2no

Real Madrid over 3.5 goals limited evidence24.0%24.3% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid under 3.5 goals limited evidence76.0%75.7% ± 0.1no

Sevilla over 0.5 goals limited evidence50.2%50.0% ± 0.2no

Sevilla under 0.5 goals limited evidence49.8%50.0% ± 0.2no

Sevilla over 1.5 goals limited evidence15.5%15.4% ± 0.1no

Sevilla under 1.5 goals limited evidence84.5%84.6% ± 0.1no

Sevilla over 2.5 goals limited evidence3.4%3.3% ± 0.1no

Sevilla under 2.5 goals limited evidence96.6%96.7% ± 0.1no

Sevilla over 3.5 goals limited evidence0.6%0.6% ± 0.0no

Sevilla under 3.5 goals limited evidence99.4%99.4% ± 0.0no

Winning margin

Real Madrid to win by 3 or more limited evidence32.3%32.4% ± 0.1yes · YES ask 35¢

Real Madrid to win by 2 or more limited evidence54.4%54.4% ± 0.2yes · YES ask 58¢

Real Madrid to win by 1 or more limited evidence76.4%76.4% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence91.8%91.9% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence97.9%97.9% ± 0.0yes · NO ask 99¢

Real Madrid not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence99.6%99.6% ± 0.0yes · NO · no resting ask

Sevilla to win by 3 or more limited evidence0.4%0.4% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 20¢

Sevilla to win by 2 or more limited evidence2.1%2.1% ± 0.0yes · YES ask 16¢

Sevilla to win by 1 or more limited evidence8.2%8.1% ± 0.1no

Sevilla not to lose by 1 or more limited evidence23.6%23.6% ± 0.1no

Sevilla not to lose by 2 or more limited evidence45.6%45.6% ± 0.2yes · NO ask 45¢

Sevilla not to lose by 3 or more limited evidence67.7%67.6% ± 0.1yes · NO ask 66¢

Clean sheet

Real Madrid clean sheet grid49.8%50.0% ± 0.2no

Sevilla clean sheet grid8.3%8.3% ± 0.1no

Correct scoreexact · no Kalshi correct-score contract listed yet (Kalshi lists them on match day)

Real Madrid goals down, Sevilla goals across. every figure is a cell, or a sum of cells, of the frozen score grid of the selected mode's snapshot; the "6+" row and column sum the grid beyond five goals; the simulation column is the run's own count of the same cells (run 2400, 100,000 draws).

Real Madrid \ Sevilla	0	1	2	3	4	5	6+
0	4.3%	2.7%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1	10.1%	7.4%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2	12.8%	8.9%	3.1%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	10.6%	7.4%	2.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
4	6.6%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
5	3.3%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6+	2.1%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla12.8%12.8% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 3–0 Sevilla10.6%10.5% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 1–0 Sevilla10.1%10.1% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 2–1 Sevilla8.9%8.9% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 3–1 Sevilla7.4%7.4% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid exact goalsexact · not listed on Kalshi

Real Madrid 0 goals8.3%8.3% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 1 goal20.7%20.6% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 2 goals25.7%25.7% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 3 goals21.3%21.2% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 4 goals13.3%13.3% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 5 goals6.6%6.7% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid 6+ goals4.1%4.2% ± 0.1no

Sevilla exact goalsexact · not listed on Kalshi

Sevilla 0 goals49.8%50.0% ± 0.2no

Sevilla 1 goal34.7%34.6% ± 0.2no

Sevilla 2 goals12.1%12.1% ± 0.1no

Sevilla 3 goals2.8%2.8% ± 0.1no

Sevilla 4 goals0.5%0.5% ± 0.0no

Sevilla 5 goals0.1%0.1% ± 0.0no

Sevilla 6+ goals0.0%0.0% ± 0.0no

Winning margin (exact goal difference)exact · Kalshi lists half-line spreads only

Sevilla by 6 or more0.0%0.0% ± 0.0no

Sevilla by exactly 50.0%0.0% ± 0.0no

Sevilla by exactly 40.1%0.1% ± 0.0no

Sevilla by exactly 30.4%0.3% ± 0.0no

Sevilla by exactly 21.7%1.7% ± 0.0no

Sevilla by exactly 16.0%6.0% ± 0.1no

Draw (goal difference 0)15.5%15.5% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid by exactly 122.0%22.1% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid by exactly 222.0%22.0% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid by exactly 316.1%15.9% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid by exactly 49.3%9.3% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid by exactly 54.4%4.5% ± 0.1no

Real Madrid by 6 or more2.6%2.7% ± 0.1no

Mass outside the stored grid: 0.0059 %.

Real Madrid v Sevilla: the exact column is the frozen figure Build and the Lab use where the market is admitted; “grid” marks a figure read from the frozen grid for a market outside this competition’s evaluated scope. On Kalshi means a classified contract exists for this fixture, with the side (YES on the question or NO on its mirror) and its resting ask before fees; it is not a statement of value.

Match winner

Real Madrid to win (90 minutes)

76%

79%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Real Madrid to WinReal Madrid wins in 90 minutes

76%79¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 3,083 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Sevilla to win (90 minutes)

10%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Sevilla to WinSevilla wins in 90 minutes

8%10¢

Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 2,352 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Draw (90 minutes)

15%

14%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on DrawThe match is drawn after 90 minutes

15%15¢

Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 4,281 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

The NO side of this contract is a double chance, listed below.

Double chanceNO on a match-result contract

NO on DrawReal Madrid or Sevilla wins: one of the two teams must win · Not a draw

85%86¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 330 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Sevilla to WinReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn · Home or draw

92%91¢

Eligible for Build under current settings · 47 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Real Madrid to WinSevilla wins or the match is drawn · Away or draw

24%22¢

Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 2 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

A double chance wins whenever the named result does not happen; its figure is one minus Got%OnIt’s frozen estimate for that result. It inherits the match-result evidence (including the known tendency to under-predict draws). Default Build admits it where that inherited calibration passed the M3B rule — Premier League and La Liga (all three), Bundesliga except NO on Draw — and never in the Champions League; each row states its own status.

Total goals

Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes)

96%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Over 0.5 Goals1 goal or more in total

96%98¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 679 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 0.5 GoalsNo goals at all · Under 0.5 goals

4%6¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the NO ask for a $5 stake · 15 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

83%

88%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Over 1.5 Goals2 goals or more in total

83%89¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 659 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 1.5 Goals1 goal or fewer in total · Under 1.5 goals

17%14¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 679 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

62%

70%

Estimate available · Evidence: tested on past results · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Over 2.5 Goals3 goals or more in total

62%71¢

Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 663 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 2.5 Goals2 goals or fewer in total · Under 2.5 goals

38%31¢

Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,675 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes)

39%

49%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Over 3.5 Goals4 goals or more in total

39%51¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,690 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 3.5 Goals3 goals or fewer in total · Under 3.5 goals

61%53¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,672 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes)

22%

29%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Over 4.5 Goals5 goals or more in total

22%31¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 1,434 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 4.5 Goals4 goals or fewer in total · Under 4.5 goals

78%73¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,676 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes)

10%

16%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Over 5.5 Goals6 goals or more in total

10%17¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 679 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Over 5.5 Goals5 goals or fewer in total · Under 5.5 goals

90%86¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 663 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Both teams to score

Both teams to score (90 minutes)

46%

53%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Both Teams to ScoreBoth teams score at least once

46%54¢

Limited evidence · No measured calibration for this position, so High Confidence leaves it out (point-probability ranking admits it) · 1,133 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Both Teams to ScoreAt least one team finishes with zero goals (0–0 included) · Not both teams score

54%48¢

Limited evidence · No measured calibration for this position, so High Confidence leaves it out (point-probability ranking admits it) · 1,060 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Winning margin

Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

54%

56%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins by 2 goals or more

54%58¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 678 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 1 goal · Real Madrid not by 2+ goals

46%45¢

Limited evidence · Conservative chance below Build's default 50% floor · 673 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

32%

35%

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins by 3 goals or more

32%35¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · less than 1 contract at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Real Madrid to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSevilla wins or the match is drawn, or Real Madrid wins by 2 goals or fewer · Real Madrid not by 3+ goals

68%66¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,017 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes)

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · Current Kalshi quote

YES on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsSevilla wins by 2 goals or more

2%16¢

Limited evidence · Too few contracts resting at the YES ask for a $5 stake · 1 contract at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 1.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 1 goal · Sevilla not by 2+ goals

98%99¢

Limited evidence — not in default Build; tick its market group under Markets to consider in Build to include it · 1,431 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes)

—

Estimate available · Evidence: limited testing · No usable price: no Kalshi quote

YES on Sevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsSevilla wins by 3 goals or more

0%20¢

No two-sided Kalshi quote, so no comparison · 5 contracts at the ask · quote 33 min old

NO on Sevilla to Win by More Than 2.5 GoalsReal Madrid wins or the match is drawn, or Sevilla wins by 2 goals or fewer · Sevilla not by 3+ goals

100%—

Kalshi NO price unavailable

Available prediction types: 11 the app can estimate · 18 listed on Kalshi but not estimated

Both teams to score — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); limited calibration evidence (no numeric allowance) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Clean sheet — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (= opponent under 0.5); no Kalshi contract
Correct score (exact 90-minute score) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (one cell per score, the full grid on the match page); Kalshi correct-score contracts are fetched and classified (listed on match day); limited calibration evidence (no numeric allowance) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Double chance — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); traded on Kalshi as the NO side of the match-result contracts · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Draw no bet — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (conditional on no draw; void on a draw); no Kalshi contract
Exact goal difference / winning margin — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (shown on the match page); no Kalshi contract beyond the half-line spreads
Exact team goals — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) (marginal of one axis, shown on the match page); no Kalshi contract
Match result (home / draw / away) and the NO sides (double chances) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Team goals over / under (half lines 0.5–3.5) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson); Kalshi lists team-total contracts on match day only (verified 2026-10-12), so they appear in Lab and Build late · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Total goals over / under (half lines 0.5–5.5) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Winning margin / handicap (half lines) — supported: exact from the 90-minute score grid (Dixon-Coles corrected Poisson) · this type can appear in Lab and Build; each contract's own estimate, evidence and price are checked separately
Anytime goalscorer / two or more goals — supported by simulation only: player allocation of simulated team goals (expected minutes, scoring share, availability); shown with Monte Carlo standard errors; Kalshi lists no player contract today (series fetched; classified only once their rules are verified on live contracts)

Listed on Kalshi; not estimated by Got%OnIt (shown so nothing is silently substituted):

First goalscorer — no event-order model: the simulation allocates goals per match, not in time order · needs an evaluated player model (the 100,000-draw player allocation is an experimental overlay with no chronological evaluation; Kalshi's player contracts also settle including any extra time)
First team to score — no event-order model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half both teams to score — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half correct score — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half result — no half-time model: the engines estimate 90-minute goals only · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half spread — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
First-half total goals — no half-time model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Method of victory / advancing — no extra-time or penalty model; the result rule is regulation time · needs settlement or data insufficient for a defensible probability
Relegation — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season last place — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season leader — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season points margin — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season team points — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Season top finish — no season simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Team corners — no corners model · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
To advance (knockout tie) — no two-leg / extra-time / penalty model · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)
Total corners — no corners model (corner counts are not part of the evidence) · needs a model of when or how goals happen (halves, first goal) or of non-goal events (corners, shots), with its own data and a leak-free chronological evaluation
Tournament winner — no season or tournament simulation · needs a season / tournament simulator over every remaining fixture (two-legged ties also need extra time and penalties)

a family is supported only when its contract semantics are read by the classifier and its event is a function of the 90-minute score grid (or, for player events, of the simulation's goal allocation); nothing is supported because it exists on Kalshi every supported family is served by both modes from the selected mode's own snapshot; prices are the same under both.

Recent developments

Verified changes observed since the frozen prediction, from the provider pages Got%OnIt collects. They are information for you; none of them changes the frozen estimate.

No changes detected in the sources checked since the prediction (injuries, standings, season figures).

Injury list compared with the one known at the prediction instant.

Team situationReal Madrid 1 absent regular · Sevilla 6 d rest

Schedule, workload and availability of both clubs across every stored competition, as known at Mon 12 Oct, 23:30 PDT. Each fact carries its evidential label. Deep Dive applies the availability and schedule-load facts as stated adjustments with bands (Compare the modes shows each one); Core uses none of them.

Used by Core (and by Deep Dive's base)

finished results of the same competition inside the history window (goals, and expected goals where stored), weighted by age CONFIRMED
the two teams' identities (attack / defence strengths), the target's home / away status, kick-off and season labels CONFIRMED

Core (the configured headline engine) uses none of the cross-competition or player facts below; its inputs are the finished results above. Deep Dive applies the availability and schedule-load facts as stated adjustments with uncertainty bands and is recorded as its own identity; the walk-forward experiments on this evidence (report §14) did not justify changing Core itself.

Availability and schedule load (Deep Dive adjustments) and context

Not used by Core: cross-competition schedule, rest days and congestion; player minutes, rotation and absences; reported injuries and suspensions; international duty; line-ups; standings. Deep Dive uses rest days and congestion, reported absences and line-ups from this list as adjustments with stated bands; standings and international duty remain context.

Real Madrid

4 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 2 in 14, 3 in 30 · 1 consecutive away · 1 abroad in 7 days · 1 still to play before kick-off CONFIRMED

Next: UEFA Champions League H RB Leipzig +3 d

Rotation indicator (UEFA match within 4 days): UEFA Champions League −4 d before (A AS Roma); UEFA Champions League +3 d after (H RB Leipzig) CONFIRMED

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sun 20 SeptLLA Atletico MadridL 1–2counted as workload
Sat 10 OctLLH VillarrealW 1–0counted as workload
Wed 14 OctUCLA AS RomaNScounted as scheduled workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Wed 21 OctUCLH RB Leipzig+3 d
Sun 25 OctLLA Barcelona+7 d
Sun 1 NovLLA Racing Santander+13.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Sat 10 Oct (11 starters, 22 in the squad); 61 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: D. Huijsen (D) — reason unknown CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 4 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 0 CONFIRMED

Real Madrid: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Álvaro Fernández	D	45	—
A. Rüdiger	D	90	—
I. Konaté · regular	D	90	—
T. Alexander-Arnold	D	142	90' England, 12 d before
Kylian Mbappé · regular	F	90	—
A. Güler	M	77	—
A. Tchouaméni	M	90	—
Y. Diomande	M	86	—
J. Bellingham · regular	M	163	73' England, 12 d before
F. Valverde · regular	M	90	—
T. Courtois · regular	G	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 4 players, 341 minutes — Marc Cucurella (90' Spain, 12 d before); T. Alexander-Arnold (90' England, 12 d before); E. Camavinga (88' France, 13 d before); J. Bellingham (73' England, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Sevilla

6 days since the previous match · 1 in 7 days, 1 in 14, 2 in 30 · 1 consecutive away CONFIRMED

Next: La Liga H Osasuna +8 d

Recent matches, all competitions (30 days)

Sat 19 SeptLLH BarcelonaL 1–3counted as workload
Mon 12 OctLLA LevanteD 3–3counted as workload

Upcoming (14 days)

Mon 26 OctLLH Osasuna+8 d
Thu 29 OctCdRA Hortaleza+11 d
Sun 1 NovLLA Getafe+13.8 d

Players

Last stored line-up: La Liga, Mon 12 Oct (11 starters, 23 in the squad); 45 line-ups stored.

Regulars absent from the last squad: none of the 7 regulars CONFIRMED ESTIMATED

Line-up changes last match: 1 · last XI average minutes in 7 days: 84.2 CONFIRMED

Sevilla: the last XI's minutes in 7 and 14 days and international appearances
Last XI	Pos	Min 7 d	Min 14 d	International (14 d)
Y. Fofana	M	90	90	—
L. Agoumé · regular	M	90	90	—
Félix Correia	M	72	72	—
Miguel Ángel · regular	M	68	68	—
G. Kochorashvili	M	88	134	46' Georgia, 13 d before
G. Suazo · regular	D	90	90	—
R. Ure	F	68	71	3' Scotland, 12 d before
Juan Iglesias · regular	D	90	90	—
Andrés Castrín · regular	D	90	90	—
O. Vlachodimos · regular	G	90	90	—
Kike Salas · regular	D	90	90	—

International duty in 14 days: 2 players, 49 minutes — G. Kochorashvili (46' Georgia, 13 d before); R. Ure (3' Scotland, 12 d before) CONFIRMED

Reported injuries and suspensions REPORTED

The provider listed no absences; an empty list is not proof that every player is available.

Starting line-ups UNKNOWN

Lineups not confirmed. The provider publishes no projected line-ups, so no probable XI is shown here.

Unknown or unavailable

Travel distances and time-zone changes: unavailable. The provider gives venue names only: no coordinates, so distances and time-zone changes are not estimated; 'abroad' counts away matches in a competition of another country. UNKNOWN
International friendlies and competitions of confederations that are not stored (Africa, Asia): a club player's minutes there are unknown, so the international figures above are a lower bound. UNKNOWN
A player's fitness when no injury report names them: a missing entry is not a fit player. UNKNOWN
The reason a regular was missing from the last squad list: an absence is observed, never read as an injury. UNKNOWN
Whether a reported suspension applies to this competition: the provider does not state the scope. UNKNOWN
Projected line-ups: Only when a full XI was observed before kick-off; the provider publishes no projected line-ups, so 'probable' line-ups do not exist here. UNKNOWN

Labels: CONFIRMED = directly supported by stored records; REPORTED = provider-reported, not independently confirmed; ESTIMATED = derived from observed patterns; UNKNOWN = insufficient evidence; never read as zero or as fit. Situation situation-v1; schedule schedule-features-v1; players workload-features-v1.

Player availabilityno absences listed

Deep Dive uses the reported absences and the confirmed line-up listed here as stated adjustments with bands (see Compare the modes); Core does not.

The latest report lists no absences for either team.

Last checked 2 h ago. That is not proof everyone is fit: it means the provider listed nobody when we checked.

A player listed here is reported by the provider as out or doubtful; the list does not say who would have started.

Starting lineupsLineups not confirmed

Lineups not confirmed yet. They are usually published about an hour before kickoff; we start checking 90 minutes before the game.

This season4th v 5th

This season so far, as published by the provider. Context only; not an input to the estimate.

Real Madrid

4th of 20 · 18 pts · W6 D0 L2 from 8 games · scored 19, conceded 8

Home W4 D0 L0 (scored 13, conceded 2) · Away W2 D0 L2 (scored 6, conceded 6)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 1 in 8 games

Last five league games WLWWL (most recent last)

Sevilla

5th of 20 · 14 pts · W4 D2 L2 from 8 games · scored 13, conceded 12

Home W2 D0 L2 (scored 5, conceded 7) · Away W2 D2 L0 (scored 8, conceded 5)

Clean sheets 2 · failed to score 0 in 8 games

Last five league games DLWWD (most recent last)

Table Last checked 2 h ago; the provider last marked the table updated on 13 Oct.

Player scoring (simulation)K. Mbappe 63% anytime

Simulation · player layer on Deep Dive's goals Who the simulation makes score: each player’s share of the team’s goals is estimated from past scoring and expected minutes, then drawn 100,000 times with Deep Dive's adjusted team goals (absent players' shares reassigned). No Kalshi player market is listed for this fixture; simulation only.

Real Madrid

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 91% of goals assigned · 3 excluded

Player	Anytime	2+	xG ± SE	Start
K. Mbappe F	62.7% ± 0.2	26.1% ± 0.1	0.99 ± 0.003	100%
Vinicius Junior F	33.6% ± 0.1	6.4% ± 0.1	0.41 ± 0.002	75%
F. Valverde D	23.9% ± 0.1	3.3% ± 0.1	0.27 ± 0.002	100%
J. Bellingham M	23.2% ± 0.1	3.0% ± 0.1	0.26 ± 0.002	86%
A. Guler M	7.7% ± 0.1	0.3% ± 0.0	0.08 ± 0.001	71%
A. Rudiger D	4.8% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.05 ± 0.001	40%
A. Carreras D	3.9% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	45%
D. Huijsen D	3.4% ± 0.1	0.0% ± 0.0	0.03 ± 0.001	63%

Sevilla

availability REPORTED scoring share ESTIMATED XI not confirmed · 46% of goals assigned · 1 excluded

Player	Anytime	2+	xG ± SE	Start
K. Salas D	4.3% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	70%
M. Sierra F	3.9% ± 0.1	0.1% ± 0.0	0.04 ± 0.001	89%
J. Iglesias D	2.4% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	89%
I. Romero F	2.4% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	25%
Y. Fofana M	1.9% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	55%
Castrin D	1.7% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	75%
Peque F	1.7% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.02 ± 0.000	21%
C. Ejuke F	1.5% ± 0.0	0.0% ± 0.0	0.01 ± 0.000	12%

Run 2400 (mc-v1:dc+players, 100,000 draws), player inputs as of 12/10/2026, 09:35:45. A player absent from the injury report keeps full availability (UNKNOWN is never read as fit or as out); unassigned goal share goes to no player.

Core | Deep DiveDeep Dive selected

Deep Dive moves Real Madrid by +1.7 points against Core (74.7% → 76.4%). Lineups not confirmed.

Compare modesCore and Deep Dive side by side

Market	Core	Deep Dive	DifferenceΔ
Real Madrid to win	74.7%	76.4% 65%–86%	+1.7 pts
Draw	16.0%	15.5% 10%–21%	-0.6 pts
Sevilla to win	9.3%	8.2% 4%–14%	-1.2 pts
Both teams to score	49.5%	46.2% 38%–55%	-3.3 pts
Sevilla over 1.5 goals	18.1%	15.5% 11%–21%	-2.6 pts
Sevilla or draw	25.3%	23.6% 14%–35%	-1.7 pts
Real Madrid to win by 2 or more	52.7%	54.4% 41%–68%	+1.7 pts
Over 3.5 goals in total	41.0%	39.4% 27%–54%	-1.6 pts

Difference = Deep Dive − Core, in percentage points. The small range beside a Deep Dive figure is the range if context assumptions change: the span of that figure if every adjustment assumption sat at either end of its stated band (availability and schedule load together). It is not a statistical confidence interval. The Core figures come from that mode’s own stored snapshot (#893); nothing is recomputed.

What changed the estimate?4 adjustments applied

Player availability · Real Madrid×0.976 (-2.4 %), band ×0.964–×0.988REPORTED
Eder Militao out (1 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; F. Mendy out [REPORTED]; Rodrygo out (2 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; R. Asencio out (2 % of recent goals) [REPORTED] · Lineups not confirmed (expected line-up used)
Player availability · Sevilla×0.985 (-1.5 %), band ×0.977–×0.992REPORTED
Marcao out [REPORTED]; L. Stassin out (3 % of recent goals) [REPORTED]; I. Munoz out [REPORTED]; N. Guilen out [REPORTED] · Lineups not confirmed (expected line-up used)
Schedule load · Real Madrid×1.026 (+2.6 %), band ×0.853–×1.235CONFIRMED
congestion 14d (opponent) -1.00 → 2.1 %; regulars absent last (own) 1.00 → -0.8 %; regulars absent last (opponent) 1.00 → 0.8 %; xi minutes 7d centred (own) -1.00 → -1.6 %; xi minutes 7d centred (opponent) -1.00 → 0.7 %; xi changes last share (own) 0.36 → -0.4 %; xi changes last share (opponent) 0.27 → -0.9 %; uefa next 4d (own) 1.00 → 2.6 %
Schedule load · Sevilla×0.917 (-8.3 %), band ×0.758–×1.108CONFIRMED
congestion 14d (own) -1.00 → -1.3 %; regulars absent last (own) 1.00 → -0.8 %; regulars absent last (opponent) 1.00 → 0.8 %; xi minutes 7d centred (own) -1.00 → -1.6 %; xi minutes 7d centred (opponent) -1.00 → 0.7 %; xi changes last share (own) 0.27 → -0.3 %; xi changes last share (opponent) 0.36 → -1.2 %; uefa next 4d (opponent) 1.00 → -5.0 %

Availability constants are stated priors with bands (half of a missing player’s recent scoring share, band a quarter to three quarters; +3 % opponent goals per missing defensive starter, band 1.5–4.5 %). Schedule-load coefficients are walk-forward medians whose bands include zero. 4 adjustment(s) moved the figures.

Freshness. Deep Dive inputs as of 12 Oct 16:35 UTC; line-ups not yet published, expected XIs used (as of 14 h ago; newest input 6 h ago before that instant).

Core: team strength, scoring levels, home advantage and the low-score correction from results and expected goals; no line-ups, injuries or schedule inputs. Deep Dive: Core plus reported absences, confirmed or expected line-ups, the goalkeeper and schedule load, each with an uncertainty band; equal to Core when nothing defensible applies. Paired forward record so far: 0 settled fixture(s); neither mode is called more accurate until the pre-registered rule is met.

How this estimate was builtscorelines, team strength, evidence, calibration

Why this prediction

Deep Dive · frozen snapshot (Core + adjustments) What the frozen snapshot itself says: its probabilities, its expected goals and the evidence it was built from. Experimental adjustments are kept in their own section below.

Match result · headline and control

Outcome	Headline	Control	Control − headline
Real Madrid win	76.4%	76.0%	−0.4 pts
Draw	15.5%	15.1%	−0.4 pts
Sevilla win	8.2%	8.9%	+0.7 pts

Headline: soccer-deepdive-v1. Control: soccer-poisson-goals-v1 — goals-only control produced beside the working engine for matched comparison (Phase 5B); not a second opinion to average with.

Expected score

2–1 is the expected score (rounded expected goals 2.49 and 0.70). Real Madrid 2.49 · Sevilla 0.70 · total 3.19 expected goals.

Most likely scorelines (Real Madrid–Sevilla)

2–012.8%
3–010.6%
1–010.1%
2–18.9%
3–17.4%

From the frozen score grid (0–10 goals each; grid mass 0.9999).

Team strength derived from the frozen model inputs

Real Madrid

Expected goals: 2.49
Scoring vs average: ×1.54
Conceding vs average: ×0.60

Sevilla

Expected goals: 0.70
Scoring vs average: ×0.60
Conceding vs average: ×1.54

Real Madrid (home): expected to score ×1.54 the competition's average for a home side and to concede ×0.60 the average.
Sevilla (away): expected to score ×0.60 the competition's average for a away side and to concede ×1.54 the average.
Recent 377 finished matches of this competition averaged 1.61 home and 1.16 away goals (home advantage observed ×1.39).

ratios of the frozen expected goals to the competition's recent average for a side at that venue; each combines one side's attack with the other's defence as the frozen model multiplied them, since the snapshot stores no separate parameters; the competition average is a display reference, not a model input.

Evidence behind it

Real Madrid: 163 matches across 8 competitions (160 with xG)
Sevilla: 127 matches across 8 competitions (127 with xG)
Evidence pool: 7044 matches across 8 competitions over seasons 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Champions League, Europa League, Conference League)
xG coverage: 6964 with, 80 without · weight 0.5
Recency: half-life 365 days · home advantage as seen in this competition

Data freshness

Snapshot 14 h old · evidence cutoff Mon 12 Oct, 09:35.
Latest match in the evidence kicked off Sun 11 Oct; its result was observed Sun 11 Oct, 13:55.

Model version

soccer-deepdive-v1 · deepdive-v1 · digest 872d05eb3e7c0e3d · provider_goals_status_ft · scope default_catalogue

Warnings and limitations (10)

xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
Deep Dive = Core + player availability + schedule load; the availability constants are stated priors with bands (not fitted), the schedule-load coefficients are walk-forward medians whose bands include zero (artifact verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE, pooled ΔLL +0.0021); every band is carried into the market bands
a missing injury report is not fitness, an expected XI is not a confirmed XI, and an unexplained absence has an UNKNOWN reason: nothing is inferred beyond the stored observations
home advantage, team strength and competition scoring levels are the base's; Deep Dive never re-estimates them (no double counting)
paired forward evaluation against Core: 0 settled fixture(s) when this snapshot was made; Deep Dive may be called more accurate than Core only when the pooled paired ΔLL (Deep Dive − Core, 1X2) is below zero with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over at least 200 settled paired fixtures; until then both modes are two views of the same match, never a ranking
EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0

Calibration per market (27 measured of 50)

Market	Frozen	Documented calibration
1x2:home	76.4%	under-stated by 6.4 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 73.9%
1x2:draw	15.5%	over-stated by 1.5 pts on 294 matches (pooled); conservative 11.8%
1x2:away	8.2%	over-stated by 1.6 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 5.8%
double_chance:1x	91.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:x2	23.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
double_chance:12	84.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:yes	46.2%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
btts:no	53.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:0.5	95.7%	under-stated by 0.5 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 95.4%
total_goals:under:0.5	4.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:1.5	82.9%	under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 82.4%
total_goals:under:1.5	17.1%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:2.5	61.7%	under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 61.1%
total_goals:under:2.5	38.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:3.5	39.4%	under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 38.8%
total_goals:under:3.5	60.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:4.5	21.7%	under-stated by 1.9 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 20.5%
total_goals:under:4.5	78.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
total_goals:over:5.5	10.4%	under-stated by 1.0 pts on 1,209 matches (this competition); conservative 9.5%
total_goals:under:5.5	89.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:0.5	91.7%	under-stated by 1.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.3%
team_total:home:under:0.5	8.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:1.5	71.1%	under-stated by 0.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 70.4%
team_total:home:under:1.5	28.9%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:2.5	45.3%	under-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 44.7%
team_total:home:under:2.5	54.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:home:over:3.5	24.0%	over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 22.9%
team_total:home:under:3.5	76.0%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:0.5	50.2%	under-stated by 2.1 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 49.5%
team_total:away:under:0.5	49.8%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:1.5	15.5%	under-stated by 1.9 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 15.0%
team_total:away:under:1.5	84.5%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:2.5	3.4%	under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 3.1%
team_total:away:under:2.5	96.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
team_total:away:over:3.5	0.6%	over-stated by 0.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 0.3%
team_total:away:under:3.5	99.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:home:-2.5	32.3%	over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 31.1%
spread:away:+2.5	67.7%	under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 67.0%
spread:home:-1.5	54.4%	over-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 52.3%
spread:away:+1.5	45.6%	under-stated by 1.4 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 45.0%
spread:home:-0.5	76.4%	over-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 74.6%
spread:away:+0.5	23.6%	under-stated by 1.2 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 23.1%
spread:home:+0.5	91.8%	under-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 91.5%
spread:away:-0.5	8.2%	over-stated by 0.6 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 7.2%
spread:home:+1.5	97.9%	under-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 97.7%
spread:away:-1.5	2.1%	over-stated by 0.3 pts on 5,505 matches (pooled); conservative 1.6%
spread:home:+2.5	99.6%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
spread:away:-2.5	0.4%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:home	90.3%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance
draw_no_bet:away	9.7%	limited evidence: no numeric allowance

Measured gaps come from the leak-free retrospective cohort (A1 §5.1, §6; Champions League from Phase 8A); positive = the model over-stated the YES event. A conservative figure subtracts the over-statement and one standard error and never credits an under-statement. Nothing here changes the headline.

5 settled forward snapshots of this engine in this competition so far; too few to calibrate on, so the historical evaluation carries the figures.

Simulation100,000 draws · max gap 0.24 pts

Context · not a model input The exact probabilities are the headline; the simulation measures sampling uncertainty and powers the player and joint figures.

100,000 draws · seed 5345244796320801231 · mc-v1:dc+players · numpy PCG64 · 0.47 s

Match result · exact and simulated

Outcome	Exact (headline)	Simulated ± SE	Gap
Real Madrid win	76.4%	76.4% ± 0.1	+0.07 pts
Draw	15.5%	15.5% ± 0.1	+0.02 pts
Sevilla win	8.2%	8.1% ± 0.1	−0.09 pts

Largest gap to the exact grid over 50 markets: 0.24 pts (total_goals:over:4.5); 0 outside three standard errors.

Clean sheets

Real Madrid: 50.0% ± 0.2 (exact 49.8%)
Sevilla: 8.3% ± 0.1 (exact 8.3%)

Goal difference (Real Madrid minus Sevilla)

<-50.0% ± 0.0
-50.0% ± 0.0
-40.1% ± 0.0
-30.3% ± 0.0
-21.7% ± 0.0
-16.0% ± 0.1
015.5% ± 0.1
122.1% ± 0.1
222.0% ± 0.1
315.9% ± 0.1
49.3% ± 0.1
54.5% ± 0.1
>52.7% ± 0.1

Correct score · top 5

Score	Simulated ± SE	Exact
Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla	12.8% ± 0.1	12.8%
Real Madrid 3–0 Sevilla	10.5% ± 0.1	10.6%
Real Madrid 1–0 Sevilla	10.1% ± 0.1	10.1%
Real Madrid 2–1 Sevilla	8.9% ± 0.1	8.9%
Real Madrid 3–1 Sevilla	7.4% ± 0.1	7.4%

Expected goals (simulated)

Real Madrid: mean 2.50 · variance 2.52 · ± 0.005
Sevilla: mean 0.69 · variance 0.69 · ± 0.003

A Poisson variance equal to its mean is what the headline engine assumes; the simulation reproduces it, it does not test it.

Experimental adjustments (not in the headline)previous headline engine · 216 settled

Experimental · not in the headline Deep Dive already applies the availability and schedule-load adjustments with stated bands (see the modes block); no overlay is computed on it, so nothing here applies twice. Candidate engines are shown for information only. Forward evaluation of these adjustments: 216 settled so far.

Previous headline engine soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · previous headline — frozen working engine (Phase 5F), kept for comparison; both identities keep their own forward records

Outcome	Headline	Candidate	Change
Real Madrid win	76.4%	73.7%	−2.7 pts
Draw	15.5%	16.3%	+0.9 pts
Sevilla win	8.2%	10.0%	+1.9 pts
Expected goals	—	2.40 – 0.77	−0.09 / +0.07

previous headline engine shown for comparison; the configured headline is the engine above. Snapshot 621 · poisson-xg-blend-v1 · digest 2814d9275461c8a3 · cutoff 11/10/2026, 20:06:13.

Detailed numberssnapshot, contracts, bookmakers, evidence

Model snapshot

Probabilities: home 76.4% · draw 15.5% · away 8.2%
Expected goals: 2.49 – 0.70
Real Madrid eligible matches: 163 (160 with xG)
Sevilla eligible matches: 127 (127 with xG)
Competition matches in the evidence set: 7044 by season 2023:2156, 2024:2280, 2025:2279, 2026:329
xG weight: 0.5
Cutoff: 12/10/2026, 09:35:45
Maturity: historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet; probabilities come from chronological historical evaluation; no forward snapshot has settled yet, so nothing is forward-calibrated
Flags: xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only

Model limitations recorded with the snapshot

Deep Dive = Core + player availability + schedule load; the availability constants are stated priors with bands (not fitted), the schedule-load coefficients are walk-forward medians whose bands include zero (artifact verdict RETAIN_FROZEN_ENGINE, pooled ΔLL +0.0021); every band is carried into the market bands
a missing injury report is not fitness, an expected XI is not a confirmed XI, and an unexplained absence has an UNKNOWN reason: nothing is inferred beyond the stored observations
home advantage, team strength and competition scoring levels are the base's; Deep Dive never re-estimates them (no double counting)
paired forward evaluation against Core: 0 settled fixture(s) when this snapshot was made; Deep Dive may be called more accurate than Core only when the pooled paired ΔLL (Deep Dive − Core, 1X2) is below zero with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over at least 200 settled paired fixtures; until then both modes are two views of the same match, never a ranking
EXPERIMENTAL candidate (status experimental, headline false): the keep rule is adopt-as-headline only if pooled ΔLL vs soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 < 0 with a bootstrap 95 % interval below zero over the full evaluation seasons and no competition with ΔLL > +0.005 and an interval above zero (research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md); the headline engine of the product is unchanged
evidence spans several competitions (2: 518, 3: 534, 39: 1199, 61: 971, 78: 963, 135: 1198, 140: 1217, 848: 444); a club's strength is its league-group level plus its own fitted terms; clubs from leagues that are not stored (outside:uefa) share one league-strength bucket and are shrunk toward it, so their individual strength rests on their UEFA matches only
draw calibration, home-advantage and league-strength terms are fitted per competition / league group from past results and xG only; no market data, lineups or injuries enter
Over/Under, BTTS, team totals and spreads are derived from the same score grid and stored for every competition including La Liga; derivable is not validated — only the chronological evaluation in research/ENGINE-V2-MULTI-COMPETITION.md says anything about them, and nothing is forward-validated
historical chronological evaluation is not forward validation; settled forward 1X2 snapshots for this model and competition when this snapshot was made: 0
xG stored for 6964 of 7044 evidence matches; others entered as goals only
draws are known to be under-predicted by the engine on every historically evaluated league; no correction is applied

Matches the model used (most recent first)

the matches the model actually used (finished before the cutoff, observed locally before the cutoff); goals and xG as stored.

Real Madrid	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
10 Oct	Villarreal	home	1–0	0.99–0.64	W
20 Sept	Atletico Madrid	away	1–2	0.30–2.35	L
15 Sept	Elche	away	3–2	3.61–0.78	W
12 Sept	Rayo Vallecano	home	4–1	2.62–1.21	W
8 Sept	Inter	home	2–1	—	W
4 Sept	Real Betis	away	0–1	3.46–0.93	L

Sevilla	Opponent	Venue	Score	xG	Result
19 Sept	Barcelona	home	1–3	0.40–3.47	L
16 Sept	Deportivo La Coruna	away	1–0	0.73–0.14	W
11 Sept	Valencia	home	1–0	0.93–0.10	W
6 Sept	Espanyol	away	1–1	0.53–1.23	D
29 Aug	Atletico Madrid	home	1–3	0.90–0.93	L
22 Aug	Athletic Club	away	3–1	0.41–1.25	W

Kalshi contracts and the model

14 contracts across 5 families matched to this fixture. mid of the Kalshi YES bid and ask at the latest stored observation — a market reference, not an executable price. The NO ask is 1 − YES bid on the same book; resting sizes are contracts at the best level when observed ("?" = not reported, never zero).

Both teams to score	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Both teams to score (90 minutes) KXLALIGABTTS-26OCT18RMASEV-BTTS	46.2%	53.0%	−6.8 pts	0.52 / 0.54	0.48	1,133 / 1,060	Comparable seen 33 min ago mathematically supported, not validated; forward calibration: none yet

Match winner	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Real Madrid to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA	76.4%	78.5%	−2.1 pts	0.78 / 0.79	0.22	3,083 / 2	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet
Sevilla to win (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV	8.2%	9.5%	−1.3 pts	0.09 / 0.10	0.91	2,352 / 47	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Draw	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Draw (90 minutes) KXLALIGAGAME-26OCT18RMASEV-TIE	15.5%	14.5%	+1.0 pts	0.14 / 0.15	0.86	4,281 / 330	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically evaluated (primary target); forward calibration: none yet

Winning margin	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Real Madrid to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA2	54.4%	56.5%	−2.1 pts	0.55 / 0.58	0.45	678 / 673	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Real Madrid to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-RMA3	32.3%	34.5%	−2.2 pts	0.34 / 0.35	0.66	0 / 1,017	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sevilla to win by more than 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV2	2.1%	8.5%	−6.4 pts	0.01 / 0.16	0.99	1 / 1,431	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Sevilla to win by more than 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGASPREAD-26OCT18RMASEV-SEV3	0.4%	—	—	— / 0.20	—	5 / 0	No two-sided Kalshi quote seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Total goals	Model	Market ref.	Diff	YES bid / ask	NO ask	Resting (YES / NO)	Status
Over 0.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-1	95.7%	96.0%	−0.3 pts	0.94 / 0.98	0.06	679 / 15	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 1.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-2	82.9%	87.5%	−4.6 pts	0.86 / 0.89	0.14	659 / 679	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 2.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-3	61.7%	70.0%	−8.3 pts	0.69 / 0.71	0.31	663 / 1,675	Comparable seen 33 min ago historically encouraging; forward calibration: none yet
Over 3.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-4	39.4%	49.0%	−9.6 pts	0.47 / 0.51	0.53	1,690 / 1,672	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 4.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-5	21.7%	29.0%	−7.3 pts	0.27 / 0.31	0.73	1,434 / 1,676	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet
Over 5.5 goals (90 minutes) KXLALIGATOTAL-26OCT18RMASEV-6	10.4%	15.5%	−5.1 pts	0.14 / 0.17	0.86	679 / 663	Comparable seen 33 min ago not evaluated; forward calibration: none yet

Bookmaker consensus

median over bookmakers of each bookmaker's margin-adjusted implied probability (proportional normalisation of its own complete outcome set), at the latest page observed by Got%OnIt at or before the instant — a market reference, never a fair value. Margin adjustment: proportional: p_i = (1/odd_i) / sum_j (1/odd_j) over the bookmaker's complete outcome set from one page. bookmaker Match Winner and Goals Over/Under settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage (no extra time, no penalties), the same event as the score grid and Kalshi's regulation-time contracts; postponed or abandoned matches are voided by bookmakers but may be settled at a fair price by Kalshi, so a comparison is exact only for matches that reach a normal 90-minute result. Observations older than 24 h before the instant are not used; fewer than 3 bookmakers give no figure. Instant: 12/10/2026, 23:30:43.

Match result	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
1x2:home	76.0%	72.7% – 76.5%	80.0%	1.25	10	76.4%	+0.4 pts
1x2:draw	14.8%	13.6% – 16.0%	15.4%	6.50	10	15.5%	+0.6 pts
1x2:away	9.3%	8.7% – 11.3%	9.9%	10.13	10	8.2%	−1.2 pts

10 bookmaker pages, latest observed 12/10/2026, 09:41:42 (older than the display threshold).

Total goals, 2.5 line	Consensus	Range	Raw median	Odds median	Bookmakers	Model	Diff
total_goals:over:2.5	68.2%	67.1% – 71.1%	73.5%	1.36	7	61.7%	−6.5 pts
total_goals:under:2.5	31.8%	28.9% – 32.9%	33.3%	3.00	7	38.3%	+6.5 pts

7 bookmaker pages, latest observed 12/10/2026, 09:41:43 (older than the display threshold).

Every bookmaker page used (17)

Bookmaker	Market	Odds	Observed	Provider stamp
Marathonbet	Match winner	away 10.25 · draw 6.30 · home 1.27	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Betfair	Match winner	away 10.00 · draw 6.50 · home 1.22	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Pinnacle	Match winner	away 10.32 · draw 6.56 · home 1.25	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
SBO	Match winner	away 7.91 · draw 5.61 · home 1.23	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
William Hill	Match winner	away 9.50 · draw 5.80 · home 1.25	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Bet365	Match winner	away 9.00 · draw 7.00 · home 1.25	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Dafabet	Match winner	away 10.00 · draw 6.80 · home 1.24	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
1xBet	Match winner	away 10.70 · draw 6.61 · home 1.30	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Betano	Match winner	away 10.75 · draw 6.50 · home 1.25	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetVictor	Match winner	away 10.50 · draw 6.00 · home 1.20	12/10/2026, 09:41:42	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Marathonbet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.35 · under 2.5 2.88	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Betfair	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.30 · under 2.5 3.20	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Pinnacle	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.09	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Bet365	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.36 · under 2.5 3.20	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
1xBet	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.35 · under 2.5 2.88	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
Betano	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.40 · under 2.5 3.00	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17
BetVictor	Over/Under 2.5	over 2.5 1.37 · under 2.5 2.80	12/10/2026, 09:41:43	12/10/2026, 05:50:17

Sports evidence trail

availability is decided by Got%OnIt's observation time only; provider stamps are audit information; once the match has started the view is pinned to kickoff. Instant 12/10/2026, 23:30:43.

Dataset	State	Observed	Notes
Injuries	empty	12/10/2026, 21:54:58 (Last checked 2 h ago)	fresh
Lineups	not_observed	—	before the window
Standings	ok	12/10/2026, 21:55:00 (Last checked 2 h ago)	fresh; provider stamp 12/10/2026
Season statistics · Real Madrid	ok	12/10/2026, 21:55:14 (Last checked 2 h ago)	fresh
Season statistics · Sevilla	ok	12/10/2026, 21:55:13 (Last checked 2 h ago)	fresh

Every stored market probability of the snapshot

Derived from the frozen score grid; "supported" is a numerical statement, not validation. Only families marked historically evaluated carry evidence; none is forward-calibrated yet.

Key	Probability	Support	Historical evaluation
1x2:home	76.4%	supported	primary_target
1x2:draw	15.5%	supported	primary_target
1x2:away	8.2%	supported	primary_target
double_chance:1x	91.8%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:x2	23.6%	supported	not_evaluated
double_chance:12	84.5%	supported	not_evaluated
btts:yes	46.2%	supported	supported_not_validated
btts:no	53.8%	supported	supported_not_validated
total_goals:over:0.5	95.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:0.5	4.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:1.5	82.9%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:1.5	17.1%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:2.5	61.7%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:under:2.5	38.3%	supported	encouraging
total_goals:over:3.5	39.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:3.5	60.6%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:4.5	21.7%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:4.5	78.3%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:over:5.5	10.4%	supported	not_evaluated
total_goals:under:5.5	89.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:0.5	91.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:0.5	8.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:1.5	71.1%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:1.5	28.9%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:2.5	45.3%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:2.5	54.7%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:over:3.5	24.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:home:under:3.5	76.0%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:0.5	50.2%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:0.5	49.8%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:1.5	15.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:1.5	84.5%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:2.5	3.4%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:2.5	96.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:over:3.5	0.6%	supported	not_evaluated
team_total:away:under:3.5	99.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-2.5	32.3%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+2.5	67.7%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-1.5	54.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+1.5	45.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:-0.5	76.4%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:+0.5	23.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+0.5	91.8%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-0.5	8.2%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+1.5	97.9%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-1.5	2.1%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:home:+2.5	99.6%	supported	not_evaluated
spread:away:-2.5	0.4%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:home	90.3%	supported	not_evaluated
draw_no_bet:away	9.7%	supported	not_evaluated

Deep Dive · Snapshot 981 · soccer-deepdive-v1 · digest 872d05eb3e7c0e3d · data as of 12/10/2026, 23:30:43