Records
How the model predicts matches, and how the strategies you saved before kick-off turned out. Estimates are the model's; outcomes are facts; money is simulated — nothing is placed.
Model performance
soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · working engine- Accuracy (secondary)
- 53.6%
- Brier score
- 0.600
- Log loss
- 1.002
- Ranked probability score
- 0.188
- Sample
- 28 settled — far too few to judge (30 needed for early evidence)
- Calibration status
- insufficient: 28 settled; reliability bands need 30
- Latest settled match
- Cagliari v Juventus 1–1 · incorrect
- Coverage
- 118 fixtures with a snapshot for this identity · 28 settled · 0 excluded (void 0, unsupported 0, irregular 0)
- Data freshness
- sports results 26 min ago · last settlement run 11 Oct 2026, 21:40
1X2 scores use the full probability vector (Brier 0–2); binary markets are single questions (Brier 0–1). Every row is the latest genuine pre-kickoff snapshot of its fixture for one model identity; identities are never pooled.
Match by match
118 predictions in this filter · page 2 of 3 · newest kick-off first · the overview and analysis above cover every prediction in the filter, not only this page.
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germainpending
- Match
- Ligue 1 · 17 Oct 2026, 08:15
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Paris Saint Germain (56%) · H 23% · D 21% · A 56%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (132.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 108 / 108 eligible matches
- Villarreal v Elchepending
- Match
- La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Villarreal (66%) · H 66% · D 18% · A 15%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (131.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 122 / 46 eligible matches
- Brentford v Liverpoolpending
- Match
- Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Liverpool (41%) · H 36% · D 24% · A 41%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 120 / 120 eligible matches
- Manchester City v Ipswichpending
- Match
- Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Manchester City (80%) · H 80% · D 12% · A 7%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 120 / 44 eligible matches · cold start
- Fulham v Hull Citypending
- Match
- Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Fulham (41%) · H 41% · D 27% · A 32%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 120 / 6 eligible matches · cold start
- SV Elversberg v FC Augsburgpending
- Match
- Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- SV Elversberg (51%) · H 51% · D 23% · A 26%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 5 / 107 eligible matches · cold start
- Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmundpending
- Match
- Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Borussia Dortmund (54%) · H 22% · D 23% · A 54%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 107 / 107 eligible matches
- Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgartpending
- Match
- Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- VfB Stuttgart (52%) · H 26% · D 22% · A 52%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 39 / 107 eligible matches
- FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05pending
- Match
- Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- FC Schalke 04 (37%) · H 37% · D 26% · A 37%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 5 / 107 eligible matches · cold start
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07pending
- Match
- Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Werder Bremen (49%) · H 49% · D 27% · A 24%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (130.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 107 / 5 eligible matches · cold start
- Venezia v Napolipending
- Match
- Serie A · 17 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Napoli (63%) · H 15% · D 22% · A 63%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (129.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 43 / 120 eligible matches · cold start
- Espanyol v Atletico Madridpending
- Match
- La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Atletico Madrid (47%) · H 27% · D 25% · A 47%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (128.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 84 / 122 eligible matches
- Everton v Chelseapending
- Match
- Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 04:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Chelsea (40%) · H 35% · D 25% · A 40%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (128.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 120 / 120 eligible matches
- Deportivo La Coruna v Levantepending
- Match
- La Liga · 16 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Deportivo La Coruna (48%) · H 48% · D 24% · A 28%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (111.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 8 / 44 eligible matches · cold start
- Le Mans v Toulousepending
- Match
- Ligue 1 · 16 Oct 2026, 11:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Le Mans (41%) · H 41% · D 23% · A 36%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (111.6 h before)
- Evidence
- 6 / 107 eligible matches · cold start
- Frosinone v Sassuolopending
- Match
- Serie A · 16 Oct 2026, 11:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Frosinone (42%) · H 42% · D 23% · A 35%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (111.6 h before)
- Evidence
- 44 / 82 eligible matches · cold start
- Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Kölnpending
- Match
- Bundesliga · 16 Oct 2026, 11:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Eintracht Frankfurt (54%) · H 54% · D 21% · A 25%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (111.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 107 / 73 eligible matches
- Slovan Bratislava v VfB Stuttgartpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- VfB Stuttgart (55%) · H 25% · D 20% · A 55%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 9 / 9 eligible matches · cold start
- Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens FCpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Shakhtar Donetsk (39%) · H 39% · D 27% · A 34%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 15 / 1 eligible matches · cold start
- Real Betis v FC Portopending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Real Betis (62%) · H 62% · D 20% · A 18%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 1 / 9 eligible matches · cold start
- AS Roma v Real Madridpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Real Madrid (45%) · H 32% · D 23% · A 45%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 1 / 41 eligible matches · cold start
- Bodo/Glimt v Borussia Dortmundpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Borussia Dortmund (40%) · H 38% · D 21% · A 40%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 13 / 37 eligible matches
- Aston Villa v Fenerbahçepending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Aston Villa (66%) · H 66% · D 19% · A 15%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 13 / 1 eligible matches · cold start
- Manchester City v Paris Saint Germainpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Paris Saint Germain (45%) · H 32% · D 23% · A 45%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (160.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 31 / 45 eligible matches
- Lask Linz v Liverpoolpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 09:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Liverpool (54%) · H 21% · D 25% · A 54%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (157.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 1 / 23 eligible matches · cold start
- Feyenoord v Comopending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 09:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Como (50%) · H 30% · D 20% · A 50%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (157.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 19 / 1 eligible matches · cold start
- Viking v Bayern Münchenpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Bayern München (70%) · H 14% · D 16% · A 70%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 1 / 41 eligible matches · cold start
- Galatasaray v Barcelonapending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Barcelona (55%) · H 25% · D 20% · A 55%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 19 / 37 eligible matches
- Villarreal v Napolipending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Villarreal (40%) · H 40% · D 26% · A 33%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 9 / 17 eligible matches
- Atletico Madrid v Manchester Unitedpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Atletico Madrid (52%) · H 52% · D 21% · A 27%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 37 / 7 eligible matches · cold start
- Inter v Club Brugge KVpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Inter (66%) · H 66% · D 19% · A 15%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 33 / 23 eligible matches
- RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhovenpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- RB Leipzig (42%) · H 42% · D 22% · A 36%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 17 / 29 eligible matches · cold start
- Arsenal v Lillepending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Arsenal (76%) · H 76% · D 16% · A 8%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (136.1 h before)
- Evidence
- 39 / 11 eligible matches · cold start
- Sabah FA v Slavia Prahapending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 09:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Sabah FA (46%) · H 46% · D 23% · A 31%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (133.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 1 / 9 eligible matches · cold start
- Lens v Sporting CPpending
- Match
- UEFA Champions League · 13 Oct 2026, 09:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Lens (44%) · H 44% · D 24% · A 33%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 7 Oct 2026, 19:52 (133.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 7 / 23 eligible matches · cold start
- Levante v Sevillapending
- Match
- La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Levante (47%) · H 47% · D 25% · A 28%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (15.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 44 / 121 eligible matches
- Coventry v Newcastlepending
- Match
- Premier League · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Newcastle (52%) · H 23% · D 24% · A 52%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (15.9 h before)
- Evidence
- 5 / 119 eligible matches · cold start
- Torino v Udinesepending
- Match
- Serie A · 12 Oct 2026, 11:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Torino (40%) · H 40% · D 27% · A 34%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (15.6 h before)
- Evidence
- 119 / 119 eligible matches
- Atalanta v Veneziapending
- Match
- Serie A · 12 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Atalanta (71%) · H 71% · D 18% · A 11%
- Verified result
- not settled yet
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 20:06 (13.4 h before)
- Evidence
- 119 / 43 eligible matches · cold start
- Racing Santander v Valenciaincorrect
- Match
- La Liga · 11 Oct 2026, 12:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Racing Santander (40%) · H 40% · D 23% · A 37%
- Verified result
- 2–2 · Draw
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 09:30 (2.5 h before)
- Evidence
- 7 / 121 eligible matches · cold start · log loss 1.486 · Brier 0.899
- Estac Troyes v Marseillecorrect
- Match
- Ligue 1 · 11 Oct 2026, 11:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Marseille (64%) · H 18% · D 18% · A 64%
- Verified result
- 0–2 · Marseille
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 11:33 (0.2 h before)
- Evidence
- 5 / 107 eligible matches · cold start · log loss 0.448 · Brier 0.196
- Cagliari v Juventusincorrect
- Match
- Serie A · 11 Oct 2026, 11:45
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Juventus (55%) · H 20% · D 26% · A 55%
- Verified result
- 1–1 · Draw
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 11 Oct 2026, 11:33 (0.2 h before)
- Evidence
- 119 / 119 eligible matches · log loss 1.361 · Brier 0.891
- Real Betis v Osasunacorrect
- Match
- La Liga · 11 Oct 2026, 09:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Real Betis (54%) · H 54% · D 24% · A 22%
- Verified result
- 5–2 · Real Betis
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (24 h before)
- Evidence
- 121 / 121 eligible matches · log loss 0.613 · Brier 0.315
- SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04correct
- Match
- Bundesliga · 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- SC Freiburg (50%) · H 50% · D 25% · A 25%
- Verified result
- 2–1 · SC Freiburg
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (23 h before)
- Evidence
- 106 / 4 eligible matches · cold start · log loss 0.691 · Brier 0.373
- Liverpool v Manchester Cityincorrect
- Match
- Premier League · 11 Oct 2026, 08:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Liverpool (38%) · H 38% · D 24% · A 38%
- Verified result
- 0–3 · Manchester City
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (23 h before)
- Evidence
- 119 / 119 eligible matches · log loss 0.967 · Brier 0.586
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Corunacorrect
- Match
- La Liga · 11 Oct 2026, 07:15
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Real Sociedad (47%) · H 47% · D 26% · A 27%
- Verified result
- 3–2 · Real Sociedad
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (21.7 h before)
- Evidence
- 121 / 7 eligible matches · cold start · log loss 0.757 · Brier 0.423
- 1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbachcorrect
- Match
- Bundesliga · 11 Oct 2026, 06:30
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- 1. FC Köln (47%) · H 47% · D 23% · A 30%
- Verified result
- 2–1 · 1. FC Köln
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (21 h before)
- Evidence
- 72 / 106 eligible matches · log loss 0.758 · Brier 0.426
- Hull City v Evertonincorrect
- Match
- Premier League · 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Hull City (41%) · H 41% · D 29% · A 29%
- Verified result
- 2–2 · Draw
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (20.5 h before)
- Evidence
- 5 / 119 eligible matches · cold start · log loss 1.221 · Brier 0.753
- Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forestcorrect
- Match
- Premier League · 11 Oct 2026, 06:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Crystal Palace (42%) · H 42% · D 26% · A 32%
- Verified result
- 3–1 · Crystal Palace
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (20.5 h before)
- Evidence
- 119 / 119 eligible matches · log loss 0.865 · Brier 0.504
- Elche v Celta Vigoincorrect
- Match
- La Liga · 11 Oct 2026, 05:00
- Predicted (Match result (1X2))
- Celta Vigo (37%) · H 37% · D 25% · A 37%
- Verified result
- 0–0 · Draw
- Model
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927 · cutoff 10 Oct 2026, 09:30 (19.5 h before)
- Evidence
- 45 / 121 eligible matches · log loss 1.377 · Brier 0.839
Are the probabilities behaving?
Calibration bands need at least 30 settled predictions; 28 so far. Nothing here is a verdict.
Over time
- 2026-W41n 28Brier 0.600log loss 1.002accuracy 54%
A trend needs several weeks with samples above the threshold; one week is not improvement or deterioration.
By competition
- Bundesliga9 settled / 18Brier 0.680 · log loss 1.100 · accuracy 56%insufficient
- La Liga8 settled / 21Brier 0.501 · log loss 0.879 · accuracy 63%insufficient
- Ligue 11 settled / 10Brier 0.196 · log loss 0.448 · accuracy 100%insufficient
- Premier League9 settled / 20Brier 0.622 · log loss 1.036 · accuracy 44%insufficient
- Serie A1 settled / 13Brier 0.891 · log loss 1.361 · accuracy 0%insufficient
- UEFA Champions League0 settled / 36awaiting settled predictionsnone
By market
51 markets in the catalogue (each scored on its own question)
- Match result (1X2)28 settled / 118Brier 0.600 · log loss 1.002 · accuracy 54%insufficient
- Result home28 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient
- Result draw28 settled / 118Brier 0.224 · log loss 0.646 · accuracy 68%insufficient
- Result away28 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient
- Double chance 1x28 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Double chance x228 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Double chance 1228 settled / 118Brier 0.224 · log loss 0.646 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Both teams to score28 settled / 118Brier 0.255 · log loss 0.704 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Both teams to score no28 settled / 118Brier 0.255 · log loss 0.704 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals over 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.035 · log loss 0.158 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals under 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.035 · log loss 0.158 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals over 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.120 · log loss 0.413 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals under 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.120 · log loss 0.413 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Over 2.5 goals28 settled / 118Brier 0.234 · log loss 0.660 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals under 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.234 · log loss 0.660 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals over 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.244 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals under 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.244 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 57%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals over 4.528 settled / 118Brier 0.167 · log loss 0.512 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals under 4.528 settled / 118Brier 0.167 · log loss 0.512 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals over 5.528 settled / 118Brier 0.123 · log loss 0.410 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Total goals under 5.528 settled / 118Brier 0.123 · log loss 0.410 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home over 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.141 · log loss 0.442 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home under 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.141 · log loss 0.442 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home over 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.230 · log loss 0.650 · accuracy 64%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home under 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.230 · log loss 0.650 · accuracy 64%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home over 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.175 · log loss 0.521 · accuracy 75%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home under 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.175 · log loss 0.521 · accuracy 75%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home over 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.091 · log loss 0.301 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total home under 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.091 · log loss 0.301 · accuracy 89%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away over 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.155 · log loss 0.487 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away under 0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.155 · log loss 0.487 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away over 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.246 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away under 1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.246 · log loss 0.685 · accuracy 61%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away over 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.107 · log loss 0.359 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away under 2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.107 · log loss 0.359 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away over 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.037 · log loss 0.148 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Team total away under 3.528 settled / 118Brier 0.037 · log loss 0.148 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread home -2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.106 · log loss 0.333 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread away +2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.106 · log loss 0.333 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread home -1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.127 · log loss 0.404 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread away +1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.127 · log loss 0.404 · accuracy 86%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread home -0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread away +0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.199 · log loss 0.583 · accuracy 68%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread home +0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread away -0.528 settled / 118Brier 0.177 · log loss 0.533 · accuracy 71%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread home +1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.108 · log loss 0.349 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread away -1.528 settled / 118Brier 0.108 · log loss 0.349 · accuracy 82%insufficient · 36 excluded
- Spread home +2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.040 · log loss 0.165 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 37 excluded
- Spread away -2.528 settled / 118Brier 0.040 · log loss 0.165 · accuracy 96%insufficient · 37 excluded
- Draw no bet home19 settled / 118Brier 0.172 · log loss 0.525 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 45 excluded
- Draw no bet away19 settled / 118Brier 0.172 · log loss 0.525 · accuracy 79%insufficient · 45 excluded
Model versus Kalshi
Awaiting completed, verified predictions with a matched pre-kickoff Kalshi quote.
Retrospective research
Historical chronological simulations (Phase 4–8 research, 2023–2026 seasons) exist in the research reports under research/ and were recomputed in the October 2026 audit. They are retrospective: their probabilities were not recorded live before those games, and they are never blended into the live figures above.
The forward record, model by model
Genuine out-of-sample record: the latest pre-kickoff snapshot per fixture and model identity, scored on its verified settlement. Never pooled with any backtest.
VERIFIED Leakage guard: 0 of 571 snapshots with a cutoff at or after kick-off · 0 made after kick-off (must both be 0; counted by a query at page load).
0 settled fixtures for the working engine (Premier League 0, Ligue 1 0, Bundesliga 0, Serie A 0, La Liga 0) · Kalshi quote paired on 0 · bookmaker consensus paired on 0. Δ = model − reference log loss; negative favours the model; the interval is a seeded bootstrap. Sample words: no settled prediction yet.
permanent control · soccer-poisson-goals-v1
permanent controlPer scope: settled fixtures · log loss, Brier (0–2), accuracy · Δ log loss vs the working engine with its 95 % interval · model vs market log loss, Δ and how often the model was better.
- All competitions28 settledlog loss 1.023 · Brier 0.617 · accuracy 57.1%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.023 vs 0.965 · Δ +0.059 [−0.012, +0.132] · n 28 · model better on 10 of 28vs books: 1.023 vs 0.958 · Δ +0.065 [−0.005, +0.139] · n 28 · model better on 10 of 28
- Premier League9 settledlog loss 1.042 · Brier 0.628 · accuracy 55.6%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.042 vs 1.000 · Δ +0.041 [−0.022, +0.105] · n 9 · model better on 3 of 9vs books: 1.042 vs 0.980 · Δ +0.062 [−0.011, +0.138] · n 9 · model better on 3 of 9
- Ligue 11 settledlog loss 0.429 · Brier 0.183 · accuracy 100.0%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 0.429 vs 0.749 · Δ −0.320 [−0.320, −0.320] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1vs books: 0.429 vs 0.773 · Δ −0.343 [−0.343, −0.343] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1
- Bundesliga9 settledlog loss 1.178 · Brier 0.737 · accuracy 55.6%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.178 vs 1.118 · Δ +0.060 [−0.129, +0.235] · n 9 · model better on 4 of 9vs books: 1.178 vs 1.113 · Δ +0.065 [−0.107, +0.234] · n 9 · model better on 4 of 9
- Serie A1 settledlog loss 1.349 · Brier 0.877 · accuracy 0.0%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.349 vs 1.411 · Δ −0.063 [−0.063, −0.063] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1vs books: 1.349 vs 1.384 · Δ −0.035 [−0.035, −0.035] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1
- La Liga8 settledlog loss 0.862 · Brier 0.490 · accuracy 62.5%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 0.862 vs 0.723 · Δ +0.139 [+0.082, +0.190] · n 8 · model better on 1 of 8vs books: 0.862 vs 0.730 · Δ +0.132 [+0.066, +0.196] · n 8 · model better on 1 of 8
28 settled — far too few to judge (30 needed for early evidence). Over 2.5 goals: log loss 0.676 (predicted 55%, happened 68%, n 28) · Both teams to score: log loss 0.717 (predicted 55%, happened 68%, n 28) · Team total home over 1.5: log loss 0.662 (predicted 44%, happened 61%, n 28) · Team total away over 1.5: log loss 0.700 (predicted 39%, happened 50%, n 28)
other · soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1
experimentalPer scope: settled fixtures · log loss, Brier (0–2), accuracy · Δ log loss vs the working engine with its 95 % interval · model vs market log loss, Δ and how often the model was better.
- All competitions28 settledlog loss 1.002 · Brier 0.600 · accuracy 53.6%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.002 vs 0.965 · Δ +0.038 [−0.029, +0.100] · n 28 · model better on 10 of 28vs books: 1.002 vs 0.958 · Δ +0.044 [−0.017, +0.103] · n 28 · model better on 10 of 28
- Premier League9 settledlog loss 1.036 · Brier 0.622 · accuracy 44.4%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.036 vs 1.000 · Δ +0.036 [−0.053, +0.116] · n 9 · model better on 4 of 9vs books: 1.036 vs 0.980 · Δ +0.056 [−0.027, +0.128] · n 9 · model better on 3 of 9
- Ligue 11 settledlog loss 0.448 · Brier 0.196 · accuracy 100.0%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 0.448 vs 0.749 · Δ −0.301 [−0.301, −0.301] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1vs books: 0.448 vs 0.773 · Δ −0.325 [−0.325, −0.325] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1
- Bundesliga9 settledlog loss 1.100 · Brier 0.680 · accuracy 55.6%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.100 vs 1.118 · Δ −0.018 [−0.169, +0.115] · n 9 · model better on 4 of 9vs books: 1.100 vs 1.113 · Δ −0.013 [−0.148, +0.110] · n 9 · model better on 4 of 9
- Serie A1 settledlog loss 1.361 · Brier 0.891 · accuracy 0.0%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 1.361 vs 1.411 · Δ −0.050 [−0.050, −0.050] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1vs books: 1.361 vs 1.384 · Δ −0.022 [−0.022, −0.022] · n 1 · model better on 1 of 1
- La Liga8 settledlog loss 0.879 · Brier 0.501 · accuracy 62.5%Δ vs working engine: not yet measurable (n = 0)vs Kalshi: 0.879 vs 0.723 · Δ +0.156 [+0.111, +0.194] · n 8 · model better on 0 of 8vs books: 0.879 vs 0.730 · Δ +0.149 [+0.100, +0.192] · n 8 · model better on 1 of 8
28 settled — far too few to judge (30 needed for early evidence). Over 2.5 goals: log loss 0.660 (predicted 56%, happened 68%, n 28) · Both teams to score: log loss 0.704 (predicted 56%, happened 68%, n 28) · Team total home over 1.5: log loss 0.650 (predicted 45%, happened 61%, n 28) · Team total away over 1.5: log loss 0.685 (predicted 39%, happened 50%, n 28)
How the market references are built
Kalshi: mid of the YES bid and YES ask of the last two-sided quote strictly before kick-off for the three 1X2 contracts of the verified event, rescaled to sum to one; quotes taken minutes before kick-off carry line-up information the snapshots did not have (biased in the market's favour; noted, not corrected). Bookmakers: latest complete Match Winner page per bookmaker before kick-off, proportional margin removal per page, median across bookmakers (at least 3). ΔLL = model − reference, mean over paired fixtures; 95 % interval from a seeded percentile bootstrap (2000 resamples, seed 20261007); negative favours the model. The market pairing is computed by the market layer from the same settled snapshots; the model report never reads a market price.
Before and after each enhancement
Retrospective = the leak-free chronological backtest that measured the change (enhancement − baseline log loss). Forward = the same difference on genuinely settled pre-kick-off predictions. A change is called an improvement only after the out-of-sample evaluation supports it; “not yet measurable” means exactly that.
- xG blend (goals + expected goals, weight 0.5) headlineBacktest: −0.004 [−0.008, −0.001] (n 1140) (interval excludes zero)Forward: not yet measurable (n = 0 settled)
- Multi-competition engine v2 (soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2) experimentalBacktest: not yet measurable (n = 0)Forward: not yet measurable (n = 0 settled; 89 stored, awaiting results)
- Player availability overlay (line-ups, injuries, suspensions) experimentalBacktest: not measured: historical line-ups and injuries were captured after the matches (spec §10): only forward, timestamped evidence can measure thisproxy — walk-forward player-workload features vs the frozen engine (workload-cross-competition C_players): +0.001 [0.000, +0.003] (n 5255)Forward: not yet measurable (n = 0 settled; 371 stored, awaiting results)
- Fatigue overlay (schedule load, rotation) experimentalBacktest: +0.002 [0.000, +0.004] (n 5255) · retain frozen engine (interval excludes zero)Forward: not yet measurable (n = 0 settled; 371 stored, awaiting results)
- Combined overlay (player availability + fatigue) experimentalBacktest: not measured: no retrospective measurement exists for the combined overlayForward: not yet measurable (n = 0 settled; 371 stored, awaiting results)
Model versions in the forward ledger
- soccer-poisson-goals-v1 · 65edd83apermanent control241 snapshots · 118 fixtures · 28 settledpredictions 7 Oct 2026, 17:36 → 11 Oct 2026, 20:06
- soccer-poisson-goals-xg-v1 · 2814d927otherexperimental241 snapshots · 118 fixtures · 28 settledpredictions 7 Oct 2026, 17:36 → 11 Oct 2026, 20:06
- soccer-poisson-multicomp-v2 · 28167ddfmulti-competition v2 (experimental)headline89 snapshots · 89 fixtures · 0 settledpredictions 11 Oct 2026, 19:58 → 11 Oct 2026, 19:58
Experimental overlays stored beside the snapshots (never the headline): combined 371 · fatigue 371 · player availability 371.
VERIFIED Permanent paper record: Every prediction is a permanent paper record: snapshots and settlements are append-only (UPDATE, DELETE and TRUNCATE are refused by database triggers, migration 0003); corrections are new revisions, never edits. forward predictions 571 · forward settlements 78 · forward settlement revisions 0 · forward evidence sets 18 · prediction overlays 1167 · simulation runs 1030.
Backtests (retrospective research)
Backtest; not the forward record. Chronological out-of-sample backtests with a pre-kickoff cutoff per target (Phase 3 evidence contract, independently re-checked). Their probabilities were not recorded live before those games; they never enter the forward record.
Cohort of 5505 matches across five leagues: working engine log loss 0.984 · control 0.987 · uniform 1.099.
Per backtest: n · engine and control log loss · Δ (engine − control) with its 95 % interval · engine expected calibration error.
- Phase 5B · xG blend (Premier League)n 1140engine 0.977 · control 0.981Δ −0.004 [−0.008, −0.001]ECE 0.016
- Phase 6A · La Liga transfern 1140engine 0.970 · control 0.973Δ −0.003 [−0.007, +0.001]ECE 0.023
- Phase 6B · Bundesliga transfern 918engine 0.990 · control 0.995Δ −0.005 [−0.009, −0.001]ECE 0.027
- Phase 8A · Champions Leaguen 500engine 0.930 · control 0.935Δ −0.006 [−0.017, +0.005]ECE 0.028
- Phase 12C.1 · Serie An 1140engine 0.987 · control 0.987Δ −0.001 [−0.004, +0.003]ECE 0.026
- Phase 12C.1 · Ligue 1n 917engine 1.000 · control 1.003Δ −0.003 [−0.007, +0.001]ECE 0.008
- Europa League validationn 516engine 0.988 · control 0.994Δ −0.006 [−0.017, +0.006]ECE 0.038
- Conference League validationn 444engine 1.010 · control 1.029Δ −0.020 [−0.032, −0.008]ECE 0.015
- Engine v2 (multi-competition) experimentaln undefined · Δ — vs working engine
The forward record and the retrospective backtests are reported separately and never pooled. A modeling change is an improvement only after a leak-free chronological out-of-sample evaluation supports it (spec §15, §60); nothing here is a verdict. Overlays and engine v2 are experimental: stored beside the frozen snapshots, never the headline.
Every row is the latest genuine pre-kickoff snapshot of its fixture for one model identity; identities are never pooled. Outcomes come from the ledger-proven settlement (corrections as revisions); pending rows carry no score. Sample-size words follow the forward maturity vocabulary; none of them is a verdict. Retrospective historical simulations are not included anywhere in these figures.
Data pipeline1 issue: 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h · sports 26 min ago · Kalshi 24 min ago
Technical diagnostics of the collection and settlement machinery, from its own ledgers. Nothing here is a prediction or a result.
Pipeline health
1 issue: 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h- 1 sports request(s) failed in the last 24 h
- Sports results last ingested
- 26 min ago · 1 failed request(s) in 24 h
- Forward settlements
- 78 · latest Racing Santander v Valencia 2–2
- Snapshot fixtures
- 118 · 89 scheduled, not yet played · 1 kicked off, result not yet expected · 28 settled
- Saved selections
- 253 · 69 match not yet played · 12 postponed · 172 settled · last check 8 h ago
- Kalshi refresh
- last success 24 min ago
- Post-game result ingestion: ok · 26 min ago (postgame)
- Forward settlement: ok · 26 min ago (postgame)
- Saved-set settlement check: ok · 23 min ago (kalshi)
Fixtures needing attention or awaiting results (21)
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club · La Liga · 10 Oct 2026, 05:00 · kicked off, result not yet expected · in a saved set
- Coventry v Newcastle · Premier League · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Levante v Sevilla · La Liga · 12 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe · UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Real Betis v FC Porto · UEFA Champions League · 14 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln · Bundesliga · 16 Oct 2026, 11:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Everton v Chelsea · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 04:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Espanyol v Atletico Madrid · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 05:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn 07 · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- SV Elversberg v FC Augsburg · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Fulham v Hull City · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Manchester City v Ipswich · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Brentford v Liverpool · Premier League · 17 Oct 2026, 07:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Villarreal v Elche · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 07:15 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Bayern München v RB Leipzig · Bundesliga · 17 Oct 2026, 09:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Valencia v Athletic Club · La Liga · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Osasuna v Racing Santander · La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 05:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg · Bundesliga · 18 Oct 2026, 06:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Nottingham Forest v Arsenal · Premier League · 18 Oct 2026, 08:30 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
- Real Madrid v Sevilla · La Liga · 18 Oct 2026, 12:00 · scheduled, not yet played · in a saved set
Schedules: installed, daily 09:30 local (sports ingestion, refresh, settle, report, evidence, Kalshi, odds, saved sets); installed, every 30 minutes (Kalshi refresh + saved-set check; no sports results); post-game step installed, every 30 minutes (results for due fixtures → forward settlement → saved-set check); last run 25 min ago. Health is read from the run ledgers, never from a scheduler's exit code.